Nepali Congress (NC) President Sher Bahadur Deuba's plan of becoming the Prime Minister of the "majority" or "minority" seems to be failing after CPN (Maoist Center) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda' left Baluwatar for Balkot, announcing the breakup of the ruling alliance.
Deuba was planning to be the PM with the support of the Maoist Center by 5 pm today —the deadline given by President Bidya Devi Bhandari for government formation.
The NC also planned to keep the presidency to itself, besides the PM's post, during the initial period of the next government.
Deuba had analyzed that Prachanda could not leave the alliance because of his frayed relationship with the CPN (UML) and was looking to be PM pursuant to Article 72 (3) of the constitution in case the Maoist Center did not extend support to the NC.
Article 72 (3) stipulates that the leader of the parliamentary party (PP) of the largest party in the House of Representatives (HoR) will be appointed as the PM by the President in case a majority government is not viable.
Had the deadline given by President expired amid talks between Deuba and Prachanda prolonging inconclusively, in such a situation, Deuba would have been the PM as the representative of the largest party in the HoR.
With this analysis, Deuba continued to take the stand that he should be the PM until noon today.
The policy of weakening the opposition by buying time in the name of dialogue is called the strategy of 'dialogue and delay' in politics.
After the President granted a week's time to form the government, Deuba continued to implement the policy of prolonging the talks according to the 'dialogue and delay' strategy.
Maoist Center Chair Prachanda today did not prolong the ruling coalition meeting, given his understanding of Article 76 (3) of the constitution.
He parted ways with the alliance, reached Khumaltar, rested for a while, and went to Balkot, UML Chair KP Sharma Oli's residence.
At Balkot, Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) Chair Rabi Lamichhane, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) Chairman Rajendra Lingden and senior leader of Janata Samajwadi Party Ashok Rai were already present.
They welcomed Prachanda and continued fresh discussions to give shape to the next government.
The latest political developments indicate that even Oli was pretty sure that the ruling alliance would not continue for long.
He had probably asked Lamichhane, Lingden and Rai to remain on 'stand by' anticipating the final outcome of the coalition meeting in Baluwatar. Therefore, soon with the announcement of breakup of the ruling alliance, all these leaders rushed to Balkot.
All the top leaders of the parties gathered in Balkot command comfortable majority to stake claim for government formation. They have altogether 154 lawmakers, which is more than need 138 to claim Prime Minister's post and form the government.
The Balkot meeting with Oli, Prachanda, Lamichhane, Lingden and Rai are likely to propose Prachanda as the next Prime Minister.
With such sequence of events unfolding, Deuba's strategy of becoming the Prime Minister of either of a minority or the majority has now fallen into disrepair.
