Shrawan Jha, 45, is a shopkeeper in Janakpur, the capital of southeastern Madhes Province. He went to his village Loharpatti Municipality-4 in Mahottari to cast ballots in the last general elections. However, this time he is not much enthusiastic towards casting votes as before.
"In the last two elections, I voted for a Madhes-centric political party with the hope that our village will also feel the heat of economic development. Sadly, we didn’t see any significant development works even as Madhes-centric parties rose to power after elections," Jha told Nepalkhabar on Monday. Frustrated with Madhes-centric parties, he is thinking to cast his vote for a different party this time.
When Madhes saw two major political movements in 2008 and in 2015, people had high hopes that those movements would contribute towards bringing significant political change and spur economic growth in their region.
At least 50 people of Madhesi origin killed during violent clashes between police and the protestors when anti-constitution demonstrations took place in 2015. Later on, the government agreed to amend the national charter, creating a solid political ground for regional parties in Madhes.
In the last 2017 local, federal and provincial assembly elections, Madhes-centric parties managed to secure seats as they came up with promises.
Now, people have little faith in the Madhes-centric regional parties because they didn't really do something good in the interests of their constituents, according to local observers.
JSP Chairman Upendra Yadav meeting his voters
Jibacha Jha, an old political activist and a former government officer in Mahottari district, said Madhes-centric parties are largely to be blamed for the bad governance and poor economic growth in the region.
"I am one of the witnesses of the Madhes movement in 2015. Police brutality was at its peak when protests were simmering across the region including Janakpur. Once day in September of that year, I saw at least five people got killed on broad daylight in violent clashes with the police near my village. I, too, could have received police bullets, but managed to escape. Why did we (people) join in those protests? Because we hoped Madhes-centric parties would work in ensuring both the political rights and economic well-being of Madhesi people after the success of these political movements. Seven years passed, but Madhesis are still waiting for basic health and education," Jha told this scribe in his home which is adjacent to province capital Janakpur.
Jibacha Jha
Jha said that they began having deep faith in Madhes-centric parties as Kathmandu-centric traditional parties including Nepali Congress and CPN ( UML) did not live up to people's political, economic and developmental aspirations for years.
He sees Madhes-centric parties are not now much different than that of conventional parties. "In fact, Madhes-centric parties are going to lose the upcoming elections. This will ultimately benefit the traditional political parties," he observed.
Two key Madhes-centric parties are in the fray in the upcoming polls—Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP). Eying better prospects in elections, the JSP led by Upendra Yadav is now allying with the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) led by KP Oli in the upcoming elections while the LSP led by Mahantha Thakur has partnered with the electoral alliance comprising five ruling parties.
Apart from that, Janamat Party led by CK Raut is trying to make its presence through the upcoming elections, inspired by the results of recent local polls in which the party secured a few seats in Madhes.
Tired of ineffective governance by traditional and Madhes-centric parties in the region, young people too are contesting in the upcoming elections. According to the Election Commission, of the total candidates in the Madhes region, 50% are independent ones, who are mostly young men.
Roshan Janakpuri, a political analyst in Dhanusha, echoed Mahato and Jha. He said there is a growing frustration with traditional parties owing to poor governance in Madhes region.
Roshan Janakpuri
"In fact, they are not just going to contest polls. It is also a matter of their political survival in this region and national politics as well. Because they are now fighting for their relevance in their own base," Janakpuri said on Monday.
Nepali Congress, UML likely to gain grounds
Madhes was once a bastion of the grand old party Nepali Congress but had slowly been whittled away by the Madhes-centric parties after 2008 Madhes uprising that saw deaths of over two dozen across Terai-Madhes region. The Madhes-centric parties, who championed political movements, witnessed multiple splits owing to intra-party factional feuds before and after the promulgation of constitution.
"The division among Madhes-centric is an opportunity for traditional parties to win elections in Madhes. At the same time, people's faith in Madhes-centric parties is sharply declining. Hence big parties including the Congress and the UML are back again," Janankpuri added.
The analyst says that even key leaders of Madhes-centric parties like Mahantha Thakur, Rajendra Mahato and Upendra Yadav are likely to lose elections as their political base has weakened.
Janakpuri observed that people seem to be turning back towards traditional parties like the Nepali Congress and CPN-UML.
Madhes-centric parties’ electoral alliance with the ruling and opposition parties is not based on ideology, but rather on electoral calculation, Chandra Kishore, another political commentator from Madhes said.
"Those parties, who once championed the agenda of federalism and inclusiveness, are struggling to ensure seats in the federal and provincial assemblies. In the upcoming polls they are partnering with the conventional political forces, which are mostly centrist and anti-federalist. Isn't it any irony?" he told this scribe on Monday.
Chandra Kishore
The province is in the grip of election fever as federal parliament and provincial assembly polls are just two days away. Candidates have intensified door-to-door campaigns seeking votes.
Madhes province can significantly impact on election results. Rallies and campaigns have intensified across Terai ahead of the crucial elections that are being held for the second time after the country promulgated its first federal republican constitution in 2015. The first such elections took place in 2017.
There are 32 federal parliamentary seats under the first-past-the-post category while there are 107 seats in the provincial assembly.
By geography, this is the smallest province amongst all the seven provinces of Nepal. The region is the most populous of all provinces with currently 2.91 million eligible voters, according to the Election Commission. Madhes comprises eight out of 22 districts in the Terai region, including Siraha, Saptari, Dhanusha, Mahottari, Sarlahi, Rautahat, Bara, and Parsa. Madhes shares an open border with India's north eastern state Bihar and has social and cultural affinity with the southern neighbor.
