In an interview with Nepalkhabar on Thursday, CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli, who is contesting the election to the House of Representatives from Jhapa-5, has said that his party has set a target of winning 150 seats in the upcoming elections.
Talking to Nepalkhabar, Oli said that CPN (Maoist Center) will be limited to seven seats this time. Rastriya Janamorcha Nepal, which earlier had won one seat, will not win even a single seat this time. CPN (Unified Socialist) and Loktantrik Samajbadi Party will not become the national party as they do not even cross the threshold.
UML has formed an electoral alliance with Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and the Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP). It has fielded its candidates in 143 constituencies across the country.
Casting aspersions on the ruling NC, he went on to say that it will get double seats this time, i.e., 46 seats while it had got 23 seats in the previous election.
Even though Oli claimed that his party will win 150 seats, it is likely to win only 45 seats according to the UML's internal analysis.
The ruling five-party alliance has estimated that it will easily win 112 out of 165 seats in the HoR.
Out of the 33 constituencies of the House of Representatives in Bagmati Province, UML has calculated that it will win in 10 constituencies. In the 2074 BS elections, when there was a UML-Maoist Center alliance, the UML alone won in 20 constituencies while the Maoist Center won seven constituencies.
UML Standing Committee member and Bagmati Province in-charge Kashinath Adhikari said that the victory will be almost the same as before.
"Our party has nominated in 31 seats in Bagmati this time. Chitwan 1, Makwanpur 1 and 2, are certain constituencies where we will clinch wins," said Adhikari.
According to another UML leader, the 10 areas estimated to win in Bagmati are Kathmandu 2, 5, 9, Lalitpur 2, Bhaktapur 2, Makwanpur 1 and 2, Nuwakot 2, Sindhupalchowk 2 and Kavre 2.
UML has placed Lalitpur 3, Chitwan 2, Dolakha, Dhading 1 and one constituency of Sindhuli in 'yellow zone' where tough competition is likely.
Even in Province 1, UML has listed 10 constituencies where it is likely to emerge victorious. Among them are Taplejung, Khotang, Tehrathum, Jhapa 1, 2, 4, 5, Morang 1, Dhankuta, and Udayapur 2.
Similarly, UML has calculated that there will be a fierce competition in Bhojpur, Panchthar, Sankhuwasabha and Solukhumbu.
There are 32 constituencies in Madhesh. UML, in alliance with JSP, has fielded candidates in 15 constituencies. "In Madhesh province, 4 to 5 seats can hardly be won," a leader from Madhesh Province told Nepalkhabar.
JSP has fielded candidacies in 17 constituencies. UML did not field its candidacies in Rautahat 3. After UML leader Prabhu Sah ran as an independent candidate at the eleventh hour.
UML Vice Chairman Yubaraj Gyawali said that the atmosphere is increasing in favor of UML in Lumbini province. According to him, as there is tough competition, it is early to predict the election results. A UML leader said that the party is projected to win 5 to 7 seats in Lumbini.
UML, which is the strongest party in Gandaki, which has 18 constituencies, seems to win very few constituencies this time. However, UML leaders claim to win at least 7 to 9 constituencies.
In Karnali, which has 12 constituencies, UML is in a very weak position. In the internal analysis of UML, the leaders say that they will win at most 3 seats in Karnali.
Similarly, UML is predicted to win in 5 constituencies in Sudurpaschim Province. UML is very likely to win Jhapa, Khotang, Panchthar in Province 1.
Based on this internal analysis of UML, the party has estimated that it win around 45 seats, which is close to the estimate of the ruling coalition.
The ruling coalition claimed to win 112 seats and kept the remaining 53 seats in the 'yellow' and 'red' zones.
