The political scenario in the Madhes Province is changing. As the vote counting for the country's November 20 elections is entering the final phase, the dominant political parties in the province are facing setbacks while newly-founded Janmat Party has gained ground in the region.
Upendra Yadav's Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP) and the Mahantha Thakur's Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP) have secured seven seats and four seats, respectively under the first-past-the-post (FPTP) elections to the House of Representatives (HoR), the lower house of the federal parliament. These two parties are fared poorly in the provincial assembly, too.
The CK Raut-led Janamat Party has won one seat in the HoR and six seats in the 107-member provincial assembly.
The JSP and LSP contested elections under two different alliances—one led by the main opposition CPN (UML) and other led by the NC.
The country went into elections to the House of Representatives and the Provincial Assembly on November 20. This was the second time people took part in the general elections after the promulgation of the New Constitution in 2015.
Out of 275 members in the Federal Parliament, 165 were elected through the FPTP voting and the remaining 110 were elected through proportional representation (PR) category. Likewise, out of 550 members of the provincial assemblies, 330 were elected directly and 220 were elected through the PR system.
Yadav lost polls
As the vote counting progressed earlier this week, Upendra Yadav, one of tallest leaders in the Madhes Province, hit the headlines. Yadav, who contested polls from Saptari-2 election constituency, faced a humiliating defeat at the hands of CK Raut.
Yadav, who made the mark in the regional and national politics after launching the 2008 Madhes Movement, was trounced by CK Raut, chairman of the newly-established Janamat Party.
Raut, who earned notoriety for running a secessionist movement aimed at splitting Terai-Madhes region from the country, quit his campaign and joined the mainstream politics in March 2019.
The defeat of Yadav, a former deputy prime minister and foreign minister, is described as a serious blow to his political career and the movement that he led since the 2008 Gaur massacre.
Yadav's charm in the province sharply declined in the last five years as he got mired in the quagmire of power politics in Kathmandu, while deviating himself from his core original agendas that he championed for the past over a decade.
In previous elections, Yadav made several tall promises including that of amending the constitution to meet Madhesi people's demands. But when he got into power, he failed to live up to his promises -- he could not lobby for creating a situation for the constitutional amendment. Analysts say because of his failure to vocally advocate for Madhes' agenda, Yadav lost elections this time.
Yadav's alliance with the opposition CPN (UML) was not rational, either. The UML is a centrist and anti-federalist force while Yadav's party championed federalism. Hence, UML-JSP alliance was based on electoral calculations rather than ideology. Traditionally, caste-based voting is also one of the major factors for Madhes-centric leaders to win elections. In the recently-held elections, Yadav seems to have failed to play that card.
There are eight districts in the province, with 32 federal parliamentary seats. There are 107 seats in the provincial assembly.
Madhes looking for a drastic change
Observers believe that the rise of a new party in the Madhes reflects people's aspirations for changing old guards.
"Madhesi people voted for new parties like Janamat Party because they are seen striving for changes. As established Madhes-centric parties failed to meet their expectations, they sought the alternative at least for now. The rise of Janamat Party should be understood in this light. However, it will also be a litmus test for the new party," Surendra Labh, an expert on politics of Madhes told Nepalkhabar.
Mahantha Thakur wins, Rajendra Mahato loses
Chairman of the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party Mahantha Thakur, another powerful figure of the region, has won elections from Mahottari-3. Meanwhile, Rajendra Mahato, another influential figure in the region, suffered a defeat from the same region whose politics began in the early 1990s. Nepali Congress and UML are making significant gains in the elections to the HoR and provincial assembly. Compared to the past, the NC and UML are performing far better in the ongoing vote count. This is largely due to people's frustration towards Madhes-centric parties.
