While the results of the House of Representatives (HoR) and Provincial Assembly (PA) elections are nearing the final stage, there is general interest in the total number of seats the parties will receive.
The parties are also relying on the total number of seats they secure to form a majority government as soon as the final results are out.
The CPN (Maoist Center), a major partner of the present five-party ruling coalition, had played a key role to form the government after 2017 general elections. The party had won 36 seats under first-past-the-post (FPTP) category and another 17 seats under proportional representation (PR) category.
This time, the Maoist Center has lost such a leverage that it had in 2017. Nevertheless, the Maoist Center’s votes are crucial to the ruling coalition to muster a majority.
The Maoist Center has won 17 FPTP seats so far. With an independent candidate winning with the support of the Maoist Center, the party has secured 18 seats. The counting of votes has yet to start in the Maoist-stronghold Dolakha.
Under the PR category as of today, the Maoist Center has received 1.155 million votes so far. Counting of votes is still halted in some districts. The Maoists had received around 1.3 million PR votes in the 2017 elections. This time, it has 150,000 less votes. As a result, the party is set to lose 3 PR seats.
Analyzing the situation till now, the Maoist Center is likely to win only 14 PR seats. In this scenario, who will become lawmakers from the Maoist Center through PR category?
There is a constitutional provision that all parties must elect at least 33 percent women in the House of Representatives. However, 33 percent women applies both for the National Assembly and the HoR.
Currently, the Maoist Center has 15 lawmakers in the National Assembly and 17 have been elected to the HoR in November 20 polls. As the Maoist Center has received 1.155 million votes so far, it is certain to get 14 PR lawmakers. Thus, the Maoist Center is likely to have a total of 46 lawmakers.
Now the party is bound to increase the number of women lawmakers to 15 at least.
Currently, Urmila Aryal, Bina Pokharel and Ganga Kumari Belbase are National Assembly members from the Maoist Center. Beside this, Rekha Sharma has won FPTP seat in Dang constituency 2.
Since there are four women lawmakers, the Maoist Center still needs to elect 11 women lawmakers from PR category.
Khimlal Devkota, an expert on the constitution, says the Maoist Center has to elect 11 lawmakers from PR category in line with various caste clusters. The Maoist Center has already submitted the closed list of PR candidates to the Election Commission and qualified candidates will be elected from the same list.
Constitutional provision mandates that lawmakers will be elected based on cluster of different sections of the society.
According to this provision, 28.70 percent from Adivasi-Janajati (indigenous nationalities) cluster, 31.20 percent from Khas-Arya, 6.60 percent from Tharu, 13.80 from Dalit, 15.30 from Madhesi and 4.40 from Muslim cluster must be represented in the HoR under the PR category.
Towards the indigenous cluster, Maoist leader Barshaman Pun has been elected from Rolpa, Purna Bahadur Gharti Magar from Rukum East, Ramkumar Rai from Khotang, Sudan Kiranti from Bhojpur. Similarly, Hit Bahadur Tamang from Nuwakot 1, Suryaman Dong from Kavre 1 and Chhiring Damdul Lama from Humla have been elected, representing the indigenous cluster.
Since seven people have already won the elections from indigenous cluster, the Maoist Center should send two more leaders to fulfil the indigenous cluster.
Towards Khas-Arya cluster, Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' has been elected from Gorkha constituency 2, Janardan Sharma from Rukum West, Shakti Bahadur Basnet from Jajarkot, Mahendra Bahadur Shahi from Kalikot, Lekhnath Dahal from Sindhuli 2, Madhav Sapkota from Sindhupalchok 1, Devendra Paudel from Baglung 2.
In Khas-Arya cluster as well, aforementioned seven Maoist leaders have been elected directly and now the party still has to elect 3 more lawmakers to fulfill this cluster from PR category.
Representing the Tharu community, Amanlal Modi has been elected in Morang 4 from the Maoist Center. Similarly, Mahindra Raya Yadav, who is in the Madhesi cluster, has been elected in Sarlahi 2. However, these (Tharu and Madeshi) clusters are also yet to be fulfilled.
So who will be elected from the closed list of 107 people submitted by the Maoist Center to the Election Commission?
Now, the Election Commission will firstly elect 33 percent of women from the closed list. And, in doing so, priority is given to communities/clusters that are not directly elected.
In this case, the first and second names on the list of indigenous cluster are automatically elected. Therefore, Durga Rai (Bhojpur) of Province 1 and Meena Tamang (Kavre) of Bagmati are certain to become lawmakers. Urmila Majhi is likely to become another Maoist lawmaker representing the minority community. With these three women becoming lawmakers, the Maoist Center will still be short of nine women lawmakers to meet constitutional provision of 33 women representation.
Taking a look at other clusters, Maoists should elect 3 people to Khas-Arya cluster. In this cluster, Parbati Thapa, Gyanu Basnet Subedi and Bimala Subedi feature on the closed list of Maoist Center, respectively. Narayani Sharma also has possibility to be elected.
Now that a man has won the election from the Tharu cluster, the Maoist Center can elect a woman. Due to this, one of Rupa Sosi Chaudhary and Gayatri Tharu is likely to be elected.
Similarly, since no Dalit candidates have been directly elected to the HoR, the party has to elect four Dalit lawmakers under PR category. Sushila Sripali, Parbati BK, Bishnu Maya BK and Mahender Mushar are among the Dalit candidates on PR list of the Maoist Center.
Towards the Madhesi cluster (15.30 percent i.e. 5 people), three more people are to be elected. The names of Meena Yadav and Umradevi Yadav are ahead on the list of this cluster.
Similarly, Kalpana Miya will be elected from the Muslim cluster. Beside Kalpana Miya, one among Haqiqullah Khan Muslim and Mohammad Wahid Ansari can be elected.
