Dr. Nihar R. Nayak, a research fellow with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, has done extensive work on Nepal. He holds a PhD in international politics from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. He has been a visiting faculty at the Centre for the Study of Nepal, Faculty of Social Sciences, Banaras Hindu University since 2011 and has published a book “Strategic Himalayas: Republican Nepal and External Powers”. Nepalkhabar's Pramod Jaiswal talked to Dr Nayak on different dimensions of Nepal-India relations during his recent visit to Kathmandu. Excerpts:
How different is India-Nepal relations under the Deuba government compared to the previous Oli government?
Oli tenure can be divided into two parts, initially when he became the prime minister, he was adopting a policy that was very favourable towards China. It was the first part and the second one, which he adopted in 2021, seemed favourable towards India. He changed his position to be more articulate towards India policy so that India became very comfortable. If we compare with Deuba’s government, the Government of India has always been comfortable with democratic processes and democratic forces and one advantage with Deuba’s government is that it creates a clear policy on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which has been a major concern for India in the region. Last time, the Chinese foreign minister visited Prime Minister Deuba and made it very clear that he doesn't want any kind of loan to develop any projects under the BRI, that is why the Government of India has been much comfortable with the Deuba government. So, I believe that another aspect of the relationship is that during Deuba’s time Nepal has given infrastructure projects to India like West Seti and Arun-III which are two major developments. There are more projects that may come to India in the near future. Another important development in this was the hydro corporation energy access and this was for the first time that the Government of India allowed Nepal to sell 364 megawatts (MWs) of electricity to India that happened after Prime Minister Deuba visited New Delhi. Both the prime ministers perhaps discussed it and the cooperation has been improved since then onwards.
There are rumours that India would engage with the five-party alliance led by Deuba and keep CPN-UML out. How far it is true and what implications will it have on India-Nepal relations?
Obviously in this coalition government, the Government of India has been very comfortable with the five party policies. So if they are going to be re-elected by the Nepalese, India will not have any problem pertaining to its relationship with the same policy government and it is not a rumour it depends on the Nepali citizens. If the election result will come in favor of the coalition government, it's a purely Nepalese citizen’s verdict. After the elections, the Government of India will support and cooperate with the elected government.
Why has the Government of India not yet received the EPG report, which was drafted four years ago? Where does the contention lie?
There are a lot of rumours and misinterpretations about the Eminent Persons’ Group (EPG). When the EPG arrangement was started, the Government of India said that it would be only submitted at the prime ministerial level. But it has not been submitted. Perhaps there are certain issues with the EPG in which the Government of India is not comfortable. The contentious issue the Government of India later found was not going to benefit India. So, that is the reason the Government of India is not showing much interest in it. Diplomatically, these kinds of study groups are formed with India's neighbouring countries and friendly countries. There is nothing new in it, perhaps new from the Nepali point of view. But India has been doing this kind of study in the past also and many such studies are not submitted. So, from an Indian point of view, the EPG is just another study group, it is not a major or path-breaking policy-changing arrangement in Nepal-India relationship.
How does India look at MCC and SPP in particular and recent Nepal-US ties in general?
India has been very much comfortable with the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) because before the MCC was signed with Nepal, India was one of the signatories of the MCC which had five tiers of agreement with the US on the MCC and that expired in February/March of this year with India. And, prior to that, the US had explained the benefits of the MCC to India or to the Himalayan nation. It mostly focused on development projects like transmission lines, infrastructure and other projects, so India didn't find any problem with the MCC project.
The State Partnership Program (SPP) has been done quite very much secretly in Nepal. The cooperation has been going on for some time and although it was done during the Oli tenure, it was not disclosed in public. But India is still keeping its options open. It is still monitoring and observing possible implications that might crop up in case Nepal finalizes its SPP agreement with the US. India is still in wait-and-watch mode.
India may not be very comfortable with the SPP unless the US clearly explains the objective of the SPP to the Himalayan nation. So, India expects the US to consult before finalizing its SPP with Nepal, because the SPP is something slightly different from the MCC. There are certain security aspects involved in the SPP. The US needs to discuss and explain what exactly would be its operational activities, what are the issues they are going to cover, what are the security dimensions in the SPP, so these issues need to be discussed before finalizing this agreement.
What is Agnipath Scheme and how will it benefit the Nepali Youth?
Agnipath scheme is attractive for youths in spite of protests. The Nepali youth who are aspiring to develop their career with the Indian army should not be extremely concerned about it as they will be joining Indian Army as an Agniveer and are entitled to and given the same amount as Indians and will also receive a certificate. However, it also depends upon individual choices such as the people are comparing between Agniveer and Gorkha recruitment but the speaker personally does not see any difference. The training, recruitment and economic package will be the same but the duration is lesser and they would not be entitled to any pension. Although there was a tripartite agreement between Britain, India and Nepal, most of the time it was based upon the individual choices of Nepal and the Gorkha community to join the Indian Army and the state did not play any major roles and devoted greater emphasis on individual choices. Politicisation and narrow analysis of this issue needs to be stopped and the views of the Nepalese youth on this issue should be restored.
Since the Government of India will be directly recruiting the Nepali youth without the consultation with the Nepal government, isn’t it against Nepal’s sovereignty?
No new recruitment arrangement has been done and the previous pattern of Nepalese youth visiting the recruitment centres has been maintained in this scheme as well. They are not taking permission from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) or concerned authorities in Nepal. The Government of India had asked the Nepal government to facilitate the recruitment process. There is no issue of sovereignty here. After four years, the Agniveer will have multiple options such as he/she can join the Indian Army, paramilitary forces, or can work in private agencies or can use the certificate to join Dubai police, Singapore police or the Nepali Army as well. They will also be provided the technical training as well which they can use later to also expand their career. Thus, there will not be any disadvantages and the Agnipath Scheme will pave the way for a fruitful career ahead.
With the split of the Nepal Communist Party, has the Chinese influence decreased in Nepal?
It is very subjective to comment whether the Chinese influence has decreased or increased but the China has been exploring possibilities to bring them together. But, according to the speaker, the Chinese influence has not gone down. They might try to develop a left alliance, probably after the November 20 elections. Thus, the Chinese options are open and their influence has not really gone down.
There has been lots of engagement between India and Nepal in the hydropower sector, recently. How do you see these recent changes and how will they impact bilateral relations between both the countries?
These engagements will boost our bilateral relations further. They will not only play a major role as confidence building measures but also help in resolving previous misunderstandings in the bilateral relations. Currently, we can see that the Nepal government is exporting 364 (MWs) and they have proposed to export another 100 (MWs) to the Government of India. So, roughly, we can say that close to 500 (MWs) are being exported till November this year. So firstly, diplomatically it will improve the bilateral relationship.
Secondly, economically it will reduce the trade deficit between Nepal and India because Nepal will raise a massive revenue by exporting 500 (MWs) of electricity. Thirdly, Nepal can also join India's proposed solar alliance, known as ‘One Sun One World One Grid’ declared by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Glasgow Summit. Nepal can also use this opportunity to export its electricity to Bangladesh, Myanmar and other neighbouring countries. Although there are technical concerns such as climate-related disasters, this will be a win-win situation for both the countries. India needs renewable energy because India is committed to the Paris agreement and also committed to the Glasgow agreement that it will reduce its carbon-based economy to 50 percent by 2030 and by 2070 India will transform to a 100 percent carbon free economy. So, in that regard, Nepal’s contribution to clean energy will be a huge boost for India’s economy and India’s climate change commitment.
So, there will be a huge benefit for India in terms of Nepal’s contribution. In regard to Chinese investment in the energy sector it can be said that, firstly India and China are rivals at the global level. India has been at the receiving end in terms of anti-India activities. So, India will not like the dominance of its competitor in its neighboring countries. Secondly, Chinese investments are not transparent, there are a lot of strategic concerns including the BRI project. Thirdly, the Chinese companies even in Nepal are operating without declaring their intentions and their financial details to the Nepal government.
That is why the Government of India is a bit worried about it. Fourthly, the technologies Chinese are offering, like the different technologies in several projects, are not durable enough. But, the major concern is that India wants to secure its own investments in its neighboring countries and establish its own invested projects and also consume electricity from those projects. India simply does not want to give benefits to its competitors in its own markets.
The guideline issued by India in February 2021 regarding the exclusive import from India was primarily targeted towards China. India will allow Bangladesh to purchase from India-invested projects in Nepal but not from China-invested projects. India is going to follow a very clear policy in this regard and not engage with China in this regard as China is already causing a lot of problems for India like in the Galwan valley.
