Once Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' takes the vote of confidence in the House of Representatives, CPN (UML) will lose the provincial governments.
The parties who stood together for the presidential election are making preparations to send the UML out of the province governments.
In the presidential election, Nepali Congress, CPN (Maoist Center), CPN (Unified Socialist), Janata Samajbadi Party (JSP), Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (LSP), Nagarik Unmukti Party, Janamat Party, Rastriya Janamorcha and Nepal Samajbadi Party stood together.
They have prepared to form a new government by removing the UML from Lumbini, Gandaki and Koshi provinces. Amarsingh Pun, President of Nepali Congress Lumbini Province informed that the parties in the three provinces are preparing to withdraw their support to the government and pave the way for the formation of a new government.
"Following the vice-presidential election, there is a talk of withdrawing the support given to the UML by the parties that supported it during the formation of the provincial government," Pun told Nepalkhabar.
The UML got the leadership of Lumbini, Gandaki and Koshi provinces according to the alliance formed by the Maoist Center for the formation of the government on December 25. Currently, Leela Giri is the Chief Minister in Lumbini Province, Khagraj Adhikari in Gandaki Province and Hikmat Karki in Koshi Province from UML.
Lumbini Province President of Nepali Congress Pun informed that the nine-party alliance formed for the presidential election is preparing to divide the ministerial portfolios among themselves by forcing UML out of the government in the three provinces. He also said that the government will be formed under the leadership of the Congress in Lumbini and Gandaki and the Unified Socialist in Koshi.
Chief Ministers are the Maoist Center in Karnali and Bagmati Provinces. "We form new governments in Lumbini and Gandaki. The government will be formed under the leadership of the Nepali Congress," he said. "There is a possibility that Koshi Province will be given to the CPN Unified Socialist."
He further said that the governments of Sudurpaschim, Karnali, Bagmati, and Madhesh provinces will remain unchanged.
In Surdurpaschim, Kamal Bahadur Shah is the Chief Minister from the Congress, Rajkumar Sharma from the Maoist Center in Karnali, Shalikram Jamkattel from the Maoist Center in Bagmati and Saroj Yadav from the JSP in Madhesh Pradesh.
In case of the collapse of the Lumbini, Gandaki, and Koshi province governments currently led by UML, as President Pun said, if the nine-party alliance is agreed upon, Dilli Raj Chaudhari in Lumbini, Surendra Pandey in Gandaki and Rajendra Rai in Koshi will become the new chief ministers. Chaudhari is the leader of Lumbini Province Parliamentary Party of the Congress and Pandey is leader of Gandaki Province Parliamentary Party while Rai is the leader of Koshi Province Parliamentary Party of Unified Samajbadi Party.
Lumbini Province
UML and Maoist Center are currently in government in Lumbini Province. UML's Giri became the Chief Minister with the support of the Maoist Center and other small parties. The government will change in Lumbini after the Prime Minister takes the vote of confidence.
Chief Minister Giri will have to take a vote of confidence within 30 days after the new coalition parties including the Maoist Center quit the province government. There are 87 MPs in the Lumbini Province Assembly. A majority of 44 MPs is required to sustain a vote of confidence.
The UML, which has 29 MPs, needs 15 more MPs to secure a majority. Only the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) with four seats is not in the new coalition. Two independent MPs are also likely to support the Congress and Maoist Center. All other parties are in the new coalition.
The Congress with 27 seats and the Maoist Center with 10 seats together have 37 seats. These two parties need seven more MPs to form the government. In the provincial assembly, Nagarik Unmukti Party has four MPs and Janamat, JSP and LSP have three MPs each. The Rastriya Janamorcha and the Unified Socialist have one seat each.
President of Congress Lumbini Pun said that since the Maoist Center in the government withdrew their support, the government will be formed under the leadership of the Congress because Chief Minister Giri will not get a vote of confidence. He also said that Chaudhari, the leader of the Congress Parliamentary Party in Lumbini, would become the Chief Minister.
Gandaki Province
A government consisting of Maoist Center and RPP was formed in Gandaki Province on January 9 under the leadership of UML Parliamentary Party leader Khagaraj Adhikari. Now with the Maoist Center withdrawing their support to the government, he will fall into minority.
Surendra Pandey, leader of the Congress Parliamentary Party in Gandaki, will become the new Chief Minister if incumbent Adhikari fails to receive a vote of confidence within a month after being in the minority or resigns from the post. The support of 31 MPs is required to form the government in the 60-member provincial assembly.
In the provincial assembly elections held on November 20 last year, the Congress won 27 in Gandaki province, UML won 22, Maoist Center won 8, RPP won 2 and one independent MP (Rajiv Gurung) won. Looking at the equation of the nine-party alliance formed for the presidential election, it seems certain that the Khagraj-led government will fall if the Maoist Center withdraws its support.
With the revival of the old alliance, Pandey, the leader of the Congress parliamentary party in Gandaki, is likely to form the government with a comfortable majority. The Congress with 27 MPs will be enough to form a government with the support of seven MPs of the Maoist Center (excluding the speaker) and if the MP Rajiv Gurung (Deepak Manange) of the Unified Socialist Party is added to the coalition, the number will reach 35.
Koshi Province
In Koshi Province, now the big party UML is leading the government with the support of Maoist Center, RPP and JSP. However, with the UML withdrawing its support to the federal government, the future of the Hikmat Karki-led government has become uncertain.
With the Maoist Center and JSP withdrawing their support to the state government, the life of the Karki-led government is almost certain to collapse. Karki, who is also the leader of the UML parliamentary party, was appointed as the Chief Minister on January 8.
With the Maoist Center and JSP withdrawing their support, Karki is unlikely to get a vote of confidence. In the 93-member Koshi Province Assembly, 47 MPs are required to form a majority.
UML has 40 MPs in Koshi. RPP, which is outside the nine-party alliance, has six MPs. Even if UML and RPP get together, the support of one person is not enough for Chief Minister Karki.
In favor of the nine-party alliance formed for the presidential election, the required number (47) for the formation of the government can be reached. There are 29 MPs from the Congress, 13 from the Maoist Center (including the Speaker), four from the Unified Socialist Party and 1 from the JSP.
JSP has won only 1 province assembly lawmaker in Koshi Province. Bhupendra Rai, General Secretary and chief whip of Congress Koshi Province, claims that JSP will not support UML.
Leaders say that there is a possibility that the nine-party alliance will give the leadership of the Koshi province to the Unified Socialist. Rajendra Rai will become the new Chief Minister in Koshi Province.
Chief Whip of the Congress Province Assembly Rai says that the Congress will claim the post of Chief Minister in Koshi Province.
"As the second largest party, we still have our claim on the Chief Minister," he said. We also convince the leadership.
However, Rai says that the issue of the leadership of the Koshi Province government depends on the decision made by the leaders at the center.
