The Gen-Z movement, which emerged on September 8, 2025, began as a youth-led campaign advocating for systemic change, accountability, and a corruption-free society, reflecting widespread public frustration with corruption, impunity, and misgovernance. It aimed to promote an alternative political agenda led by the youth.
However, fragmentation has become a significant issue, as some members have formed political parties while others have taken legal action against the Prime Minister. Furthermore, allegations have surfaced that the current government is being influenced by international non-governmental organisations (INGOs), resulting in delays and stalled cabinet expansions.
Challenging the foundations of power
As Gen Z grapples with fragmentation and leaderlessness, public faith in it as a viable political alternative to established parties is waning. This decline is compounded by a lack of cohesive ideology, connections to international NGOs, and ongoing intimidation by Gen Z of the interim government that they initially supported. Tensions escalated on October 25, when police arrested around 50 representatives from Manjana Rai’s faction during a peaceful demonstration at Maitighar. The faction condemned the arrests, demanding immediate action and accusing the government of breaching its commitments.
The challenges are not isolated incidents. Just hours following the formation of the interim government, Sudan Gurung’s Gen Z faction called for the resignation of Prime Minister Sushila Karki, contesting the arbitrary cabinet appointments. Protests erupted outside her residence, with demonstrators asserting, “We were the ones who made her the prime minister,” while warning of the potential consequences if their demands remained unmet.
On October 21, amid rising dissatisfaction, injured members of Gen Z challenged the interim government’s ties to an NGO, the Barbara Foundation, during a meeting with the Prime Minister. Their frustration intensified as the government reacted defensively regarding the NGO's involvement, raising concerns about accountability and protection.
Additionally, the cabinet's third expansion faced delays due to internal discord among Gen Z factions and an inability to agree on ministerial candidates with the government. Earlier protests had also erupted against Karki’s appointment as head of the interim government, with critics arguing that the movement was never intended to elevate a septuagenarian leader, labeling her as pro-Indian. These conflicts signify a growing divide and the substantial challenges that Gen Z faces as it navigates the complexities of power dynamics and accountability.
The precious 45 days
It has been 45 days since the Gen Z movement in Nepal successfully overthrew the KP Sharma Oli government in Kathmandu, paving the way for the formation of an interim government responsible for organizing elections on March 5, 2026. While some progress has been made in establishing the interim government and expanding the cabinet, significant political changes remain elusive. Although street violence has ceased, tensions persist among political parties and various factions of Gen Z and the interim government.
Both established and emerging political entities face the daunting task of guiding Nepal toward long-term stability, promoting a corruption-free society, and fostering economic development—all while aligning with the aspirations of the populace.
The likelihood of timely elections is becoming increasingly uncertain as the initial enthusiasm for the Gen Z movement has faded. This decline in optimism is largely due to pronounced fragmentation and the absence of a compelling alternative to the three dominant political parties. Furthermore, these established parties remain mired in internal conflicts regarding leadership transitions and their future directions. While major political parties express an interest in participating in the electoral process, they have raised security concerns in discussions with the President, Prime Minister, and the elections commissioner. There exists a serious trust deficit between the interim government, established political parties, and Gen Z factions. To date, the government has struggled to bridge this trust gap.
Challenges facing the Karki government
First, the relationship between established political parties and the younger political forces particularly Gen Z, is marked by significant distrust. Many young citizens feel alienated from traditional political practices and believe their interests and concerns are not adequately represented. This disconnect poses a significant challenge for the Karki government, as restoring trust is essential for fostering collaboration and effective governance.
Second, as the election date approaches, there is a growing lack of agreement among key political stakeholders regarding the feasibility of holding elections on March 5. Discrepancies in opinions among different parties regarding election logistics, voter readiness, and electoral reforms contribute to this impasse, creating uncertainty about the democratic process moving forward and potentially stalling governmental reforms.
Third, the Karki government faces mounting pressure from various factions within Generation Z, which is characterized by its diverse and often conflicting demands. Key issues include:
- Many in Gen Z are advocating for constitutional amendments, reflecting their desire for transparency, political stability, faster development, inclusive governance, and participation in shaping governance.
- There is a demand for a political system that allows citizens to directly elect their Prime Minister, aiming to enhance accountability and democratic engagement.
- The call for decisive action against corrupt leaders and officials is a top priority for young voters, who see such measures as fundamental to restoring faith in governance and advocating for a fair and just society.
- The expansion of the cabinet has been sluggish, leading to concerns about governmental stability and efficiency. Delays in this expansion may hinder effective governance and create perceptions of indecision within the administration.
The Karki government has failed to convince the Gen Z factions that constitutional amendments are not possible before the elections, given the absence of Parliament and the interim government's limited mandate.
Moreover, tensions escalated on October 11 after President Ramchandra Paudel invited a group led by Sudan Gurung for discussions, while another faction protested outside, labeling Gurung’s team as “foreign agents.” Amid conflicting demands, some Gen Z activists questioned whether Prime Minister Sushila Karki had been appointed by “foreign powers.” The protestors denounced Gurung’s leadership, claiming he lacks genuine representation of their movement, echoing concerns about the infiltration of certain individuals in the government.
Fourth, the Karki government is faced with the daunting task of retrieving arms that were looted during periods of unrest and ensuring the effective management of prisoners. The presence of unaccounted-for weapons poses significant safety risks, while the handling of incarcerated individuals remains a sensitive issue that requires careful policy consideration to promote justice and reconciliation.
Fifth, the legal landscape is complicated by several cases filed concerning the restoration of the House of Representatives. These challenges not only affect the legislative process but also highlight underlying tensions within the political framework. The resolution of these cases is critical for reinstating legislative authority and confidence in democratic institutions.
Therefore, the Karki government faces a multifaceted set of challenges that require a strategic and inclusive approach to foster cooperation, address demands, and strengthen the democratic framework of the country.
Role of youths in political changes
Nepal has a tradition of youths taking to the streets to fuel democratic change. Their activism dates back to the 1950-51 revolution that ended the Rana rule and continued through the student-led protests of 1979, which compelled King Birendra to hold a national referendum for a multi-party system. Young people were also at the forefront of the 1990 People’s Movement, which established multiparty democracy, and they led significant demonstrations in 2006 that ended King Gyanendra’s direct rule, ultimately paving the way for the establishment of a republic. Therefore, Nepal’s youth remain a vital democratic force, persistently challenging state inertia and demanding accountability.
While the previous movement took months to yield political gains in Nepal, the impact of Gen Z was both rapid and significant. This influence was particularly evident in the internal dynamics of established political parties. Additionally, the movement has fostered a new narrative centred on a youth-led government.
In Nepal, each political movement has consistently led to the emergence of new political forces, including registered parties and pressure groups. Following the 1990 democratic changes, numerous political parties were established. However, many have struggled to sustain their popularity and internal unity, despite early successes. Examples include the Madhesi-based parties in the post-2007 period, the Bibeksheel Sajha Party in 2017, and the Rashtriya Swatantra Party in 2022. Like their predecessors, these newer parties have faced challenges such as factionalism, corruption, nepotism, and reliance on foreign funding.
The new political forces emerging from the Gen Z movement may encounter significant challenges due to factionalism. Currently, about 12 Gen Z factions have applied for party registration, adding to the existing 122 parties in Nepal, with projections indicating over 130 by November 16. This fragmentation may benefit established parties like Nepali Congress, CPN (UML), and CPN (Maoist Center), which possess strong grassroots organisational structures. As a result, the divided Gen Z movement could struggle to present a unified front against these established political entities.
Hyper expectations and political instability
Frequent regime changes in Nepal can be attributed to the overexposure of Nepali youth to Western culture, leading to unrealistic expectations for economic infrastructure similar to that of Western countries. This results in rapid dissatisfaction with the government when these expectations are unmet. If this trend continues, Nepal risks descending into a chaotic situation similar to the ‘warlord system’ in Africa or the pre-Taliban government in Afghanistan, where local warlords may emerge to control different regions of the country. This could destabilize the nation further and undermine governance.
Implications for India
India’s ties with Nepal are rooted in shared history, trade, and strong people-to-people connections, bolstered by an open border. Recognising the September conflict as Nepal’s internal matter, India expressed sorrow over the loss of young lives in a September 9 press release. India was the first to congratulate interim Prime Minister Sushila Karki and, during a visit to Manipur on September 13, Prime Minister Modi praised the new government and its youth-led civic mobilization as a promising sign. A follow-up call on September 18 reaffirmed India’s commitment to Nepal’s stability, securing its position as the first foreign country to recognise the new leadership. However, concerns linger about Nepal’s political instability, which could lead to increased labor migration, criminal activity, and the exploitation of open borders, posing risks to India’s security and strategic interests in the region.
Scenarios and conclusion
Given these challenges, the following three scenarios may unfold in the future.
- In a tumultuous turn of events, the government finds itself unable to hold elections on time, leading to an extension for the Karki administration. This decision triggers a wave of street protests and escalating violence, fueled by various groups including the Durga Parsain, certain factions of Gen Z, CPN (UML), RSP, and Maoist parties.
- Amidst the chaos, the President steps in and declares a state of emergency. In a bid to restore order, a new Prime Minister is appointed to replace Karki, and a fresh election date is announced. Negotiations begin between the warring political parties, Gen Z, and the interim government, as all sides attempt to navigate the crisis.
- As the situation continues to evolve, the Karki government loses its legitimacy in the eyes of the public and political stakeholders. The House of Representatives is reinstated, paving the way for a new Prime Minister to be elected from within its ranks. This development leads to yet another announcement of a new election date, as the country strives to emerge from the political turmoil.
Given the limitations of the interim government, current challenges, and the trust deficit among various stakeholders in Nepal, it appears that scenario three is most likely to occur.
(Dr Nihar Nayak is Research Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in New Delhi. The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way reflect the views of MP-IDSA or the Government of India.)
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