Srikanth Kondapalli is the Dean of School of International Studies and a Professor of China studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. Kondapalli is a frequent writer and commentator in the national and international media.
Nepalkhabar spoke with Kondapalli last week as he visited Kathmandu to deliver a lecture on China's BRI and its geopolitical implications: (Excerpts)
You have been studying Chinese affairs for a long. How do you analyze the rise of China?
China has been assertive for the past many years in the course of fulfilling its national aspirations and interests. In the early days, it used to export its ideologies. It also sold arms and ammunitions abroad while providing various physical support to other countries. Now, China is a $19 trillion economy and asserts itself with neighbors, without making any significant contributions.
Famous American author Charles P. Kindleberger said that if you want to be a boss, you should also be able to fulfill your responsibilities. Whenever there disasters like an earthquake or tsunami occur, the big neighbor should help the small neighbor to better fend and protect itself. It can be viewed as international obligations. However, China is not doing so.
Why isn't China being responsible then?
China has not been able to assert itself as a responsible power even during this food and energy crisis situation -- triggered by the COVID19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict. Being a big economy, it should come out openly to help others during such a crisis. However, China is led by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which first sees benefits for the self and later agrees to help others.
How will China advance in terms of global affairs?
How aggressively China will advance in the future cannot be said now. China boasts of being the second largest economy in the world. And, it seems to be in a rush now. Chinese President Xi Jinping's tendency is completely different from that of Deng Xiaoping. Deng adopted a policy of strengthening the country internally by keeping China at a low profile. But Xi is a leader who wants to achieve things quickly. He has a policy of maintaining the influence of his country everywhere.
China is actively participating in many United Nations (UN) agencies and it influence is beginning to surface. China envisions a world led by itself. It has also advanced its activities accordingly. But the rest of the world is not ready to accept China's leadership. Until China can contribute to the world in terms of goods and services, I don't think other countries will consider it a leader.
While presenting the working paper in Kathmandu, you pointed out that countries like Nepal risk falling into a debt trap when cooperating under the BRI. What should Nepal do to avoid debt problems?
Before implementing BRI projects, Nepal should first seriously study China's proposal and its terms conditions. Connectivity projects are essential for Nepal. Currently, Nepal can accept Chinese investments in projects such as roads. For the long term, Nepal should consider borrowing at a low interest rate. Otherwise, Nepal may have to suffer the fate of Sri Lanka. Though China accounts for only 10 percent of Sri Lanka's total debt, the island nation has been bound to lease Hambantota port to China for 99 years.
The US and China are jostling for influence in the Indo-Pacific region. Regional power India also wants to maintain its stronghold in the region. How do you view this?
There are six priority areas of cooperation among Indo-Pacific member countries. These include freedom of navigation, an open and free Indo-Pacific, rule of law, counter-terrorism, maritime security and maritime infrastructure, and nuclear non-proliferation.
China is not direct stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific. China has refused to join any international alliance on freedom of maritime navigation. Perhaps because of its claims in the South China Sea.
Though, China doesn't possess any historical evidence that the South China Sea belongs to it alone, it has not given up its claim. China has accepted the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Seas, but has not adhered to it.
America's Indo-Pacific Strategy contains provisions to counter China, doesn't it?
It is not true that the Indo-Pacific member countries are trying to contain China. Because China is not a direct stakeholder of the Indo-Pacific. China views the cooperation between the US and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region as its big threat. But the collaboration between the US and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region is not aimed at China. However, everyone in the Indo-Pacific are to abide by the international law.
How do you take America's growing activism in the Indo-Pacific region?
America has its own interests and concerns in the Indo-Pacific region and it is a world power. It pursues its global policies according to its own national interests. The US has been active in this area for over 70 years and remains active to date. America is the number one power in the world now and its influence will continue. China, on the other hand, is striving to be a world power.
Strategic partnerships between India and the US are on the rise in recent years. Is China wary of India becoming an ally of the US?
Frankly, China need not worry about India-America ties. Economic relations between China and America are very strong compared to India. In fact, 77,000 American companies are currently operating in China. Those companies have already invested 700 billion dollars in China. Compared to that, American investment in India amounts to a 100 billion dollars. In this way, who is closer to America? India and China?
China and the US are vying to increase their influence in the countries of South Asia, including Nepal. India is a traditional power in the region. How should Nepal tackle the challenges in managing relations with China, India and America?
Last year, China objected to the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) agreement between Nepal and the US. The US also opposes Chinese initiatives such as the BRI. It is everyday business for big countries to oppose each other. But Nepal has to decide based on its national interests. Nepal should see from which country it will benefit the most. Great powers keep on quarreling. However, Nepal should look at its own interests and act accordingly.
Border dispute between India and China has not been resolved. How will India-China ties progress in the future?
Our Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar has already said – until and unless there is peace and tranquillity on the border, no progress is possible in India-China bilateral ties. Has Jaishankar proposed going to the moon together? No. He only asked to keep the border peaceful. Which country opposes peace? That is what India means.
China has deployed some 70,000 troops along the China-India border. Because of this, the peace on the border has been disturbed. China is not willing to maintain peace on the border. So problem lies there.
The analysis in your presentation last week was that China is increasing its influence in South Asia. Do you perceive this as a threat to India?
China is building ties with Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to expand its sphere of influence. China held various meetings with these countries during the coronavirus pandemic. However, they were not just for pandemic control, strategic interests were put forth.
A new platform 'Himalayan Quad' has been formed between China and those countries. Its aim is to expand Chinese influence in the region and minimize India's. The South Asian Regional Organization (SAARC) has been the only legimitate bloc in this region to promote regional cooperation for a long. But SAARC is now in a coma due to issues of cross-border terrorism. China is not even interested in SAARC as it is only an observer of SAARC.
The Himalayan Quad aims to narrow down India's role in the region and prevent major powers, including the US, from entering the region.
However, China's Himalayan Quad is unlikely to succeed since India shares cultural ties and land borders with all South Asian neighbors. There is strong people-to-people ties between them. China's physical connectivity with these countries is minimal.
As it is being said that China's growing influence in Nepal is a threat to India, what should India do to strengthen bilateral ties with Nepal?
So far, Nepal's relationship with China has not affected its relationship with India. But if China comes heavily in South Asia in the future, it may cause some problems between Nepal and India.
Nepal and India have historical, civilizational and cultural linkages for centuries. Millions of Nepalis work in India. Relations at the people-to-people level are cordial. Nepal's royal family members are married to Indians. Cross-border marriage is also one of the special features in our bilateral ties. India does not want to occupy the territory of Nepal or anyone else. India has not done anything to infringe upon the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Nepal.
However, there is some problem between Nepal and India in Mahakali-Kalapani area. The issue is being raised from Nepali side at times. Border disputes can be resolved by through Nepal-India jointly established platforms.
Should not India improve its behavior towards its neighbors? What do you think on it?
Tibet was a buffer state between India and China when the British ruled India. But today Tibet is under the control of China. Therefore, today Nepal has become a buffer state between India and China.
India should certainly improve its relations with its smaller neighbors. It must rectify weaknesses, if any. The policy introduced by the then Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral to improve neighborhood relations can be implemented even now. Being a big neighbor, it is India's responsibility to strengthen neighborly ties. India needs to improve some of its behaviors and attitudes.
China is entering Nepal with extensive investments. China's political influence is also increasing in Nepal. No one is speaking against Chinese interference. But India's intervention in Nepal is strongly opposed. Nepalis keep flogging India. It is easier to do so because our language matches (laughingly) but it is difficult to criticize China due to the language barrier.
