Finance Minister Swarnim Wagle has presented the Economic Survey for the current fiscal year (FY) 2082/83 (2025/26) in the Federal Parliament, highlighting improvements in macroeconomic indicators and satisfactory progress in the social sector despite global uncertainties and regional conflicts. Nepal's economy is projected to expand by 3.85 percent, outperforming the global economic growth forecast of 3.1 percent.
According to the survey, the total size of the country's GDP is estimated to reach Rs 6.6 trillion, while the per capita Gross National Income (GNI) is projected at USD 1,535. Province-wise, Bagmati and Gandaki provinces recorded growth rates above the national average, whereas other provinces lagged behind. Bagmati continues to dominate the economic landscape, contributing 36.7 percent to the national GDP. Meanwhile, the agriculture sector's contribution to GDP stands at 24 percent, compared to 76 percent from the non-agriculture sector, even as paddy production shrank by 4.20 percent to 5.7 million metric tons.
The survey shows a strong external sector, with remittance inflows surging by 37.7 percent to reach Rs 1.45 trillion. Foreign exchange reserves hit a historic high of Rs 3.41 trillion, sufficient to cover 18.5 months of merchandise and service imports. However, the widening trade deficit—which grew by 11.2 percent to Rs 1.09 trillion—remains a major challenge. On the fiscal front, federal revenue increased by 3.2 percent by mid-March, but capital expenditure failed to see significant improvement despite a 10.4 percent increase in overall government spending. The total public debt has reached Rs 2.87 trillion, accounting for 43.6 percent of the GDP.
On a positive note, Nepal secured a 'Stable Outlook' in the 2025 Sovereign Credit Rating, boosting its international credibility. Inflation remained well under control at an average of 2.13 percent. Digital governance and fintech saw a significant push, with QR code transactions alone exceeding Rs 125 billion by mid-March.
In terms of social development, Nepal's Human Development Index (HDI) improved to 0.622, and life expectancy reached 71.3 years. The maternal mortality rate dropped to 151 per 100,000 live births, while the under-five mortality rate decreased to 33 per 1,000 live births. Additionally, the net enrollment rate at the basic education level reached 97.8 percent, accompanied by growing citizen participation in health insurance and social security funds.
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