Speculations are being made that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to the US will directly affect Asia and indirectly world politics. The growing relationship between America and India --which are suffering from China -- can be more than the Russia-Ukraine war.
America and India are not old close friends. India is gradually becoming comfortable with US, of late, that wants to make more allies than friends. The closeness between these two countries, which has progressed after Manmohan Singh's government entered into a strategic partnership with the United States through the 'Civil Nuclear Agreement', is becoming more compelling due to the growing power of China. There are specific reasons behind the expectations and analysis that Modi's visit to the US scheduled for June 21-24, 2023 will further contribute to this.
China has emerged as a major challenge for America at the global arena and for India at the regional level. China, which is moving forward with aspirations to become the world's number one economic power, has never considered India as a challenge, but it has been cautious to ensure that America does not follow its lead. On the one hand, the growing tension between the two neighbors and on the other hand, India's increasing cooperation with its rival, is sending a message to China that India is not as comfortable as it used to be.
India and China are having a bad relationship, of late. After 40 years there has been a clash in the border area, and soldiers have been injured. The India-China border has not been free of tension since the 2017 skirmish at Doklam near the Bhutan border. Although there have been 18 stages of negotiations at the military commander's level, there has been no signs of ending bickering subsisting between the military forces of the two power nations. Recently, when India hosted the G-20 Tourism Ministers' meeting in Kashmir, China did not participate saying that it was a 'disputed land'.
Besides, the news that some places in India's Arunachal Pradesh have been renamed by China has also been published. In recent days, the relationship between these two countries soured after they expelled journalists from each other's countries. As a result, trade has been affected with India banning several Chinese products from entering its country. Given this situation, India alone is finding it difficult to stop China not only in other areas but also in its own border area. And, to tackle this situation, probably Modi has tried to extend his hand in addition to friendship with America.
Personally, the relationship between Narendra Modi and the US is not smooth. The United States had refused to grant Modi a visa to the country saying that the violence had erupted when Modi was the Chief Minister of Gujarat and that his role in it was inappropriate. However, relations between power nations are not only influenced by personal reasons. Even though the stories of US President Richard Nixon to Foreign Minister Henry Kissinger to overthrow Indira Gandhi are old in India, they have not been forgotten. Now, the time has changed. That may be the reason why Narendra Modi is constantly reaching out to America.
Due to the Russia-Ukraine war, India has become of special importance for America. Because, India has been one of the major countries that did not criticize Russia during this war and has been refraining from giving a specific response saying that 'humanity is a big thing for India'. Despite America's best efforts, India has not changed its traditional relationship with Russia. Even though Narendra Modi criticized every policy from Jawaharlal Nehru to Manmohan Singh saying that 'Congress and Nehru-Gandhi family made India directionless for 60 years', the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Peace and Friendship concluded by Indira Gandhi with Russia in 1971, still India-Russia The relationship continues.
Despite the differences in political views, the relationship between the communist Soviet Union and India, the world's largest democracy, which reached a height during the time of Indira Gandhi, has been maintained despite many ups and downs. Especially, it cannot be said that if the Soviet Union had not helped India during the India-Pakistan war that broke out during the construction of Bangladesh in 1971, the outcome of the war would not have been in Pakistan's favor with the help of America and China. For that reason, even after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the warmth of the Indians towards Russia has not died down.
It is not only because of history that India has close relations with Russia. Russia is the main supplier of essential fuel for India. According to 2022 figures, Russia is India's fifth largest trading partner, with trade worth $44 billion. Russia and India have a deep partnership in defense, military equipment and technology. Speaking at several international forums, Indian Foreign Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar has defended his country's relationship with Russia and criticized Europe and America. Trade between India and Russia has determined international relations.
This has become a headache for America. On the one hand, India needs the support of the US to face the challenge of China, on the other hand, the US needs the support of India to isolate Russia. Perhaps in the middle of this tug-of-war, India-US relations are looking for a new way.
America and American society are not satisfied with what is happening in India now. In the report on religious freedom - '2022 Report on International Religious Freedom: India' published by the US Ministry of State on May 16, 2023, it not only criticized India, but also accused India of giving money to RPP and other parties to make Nepal a Hindu nation. Not only that, in the "Country Reports on Human Rights Practices'' issued by the Biden administration on March 20, 2023, the US strongly criticized India and commented that the human rights situation in India is deteriorating.
Modi did not like America's constant analysis that Hindu extremism is on the rise in India and the threat to religious and other minorities is increasing. The US has also been criticizing the Indian government's policy on freedom of the press and expression. The American media outlets have been criticizing Prime Minister Modi and his government saying that freedom is shrinking and religious extremism is on the rise. Although India dismisses it as the 'colonial mentality of Western countries and society', Modi's right-wing religious extremist image still exists.
In this background, by inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Washington on a state visit, President Joe Biden is not only making him a guest of the White House, but also giving him an opportunity to address a joint meeting of both houses of the US. Modi's address is different from previous Indian Prime Ministers in this sense - he is going to address the American House of Commons for the second time. The practice started by India's first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru in 1949 when he visited the US by addressing the Congress and the Senate separately, was followed by Rajiv Gandhi (1985), PV Narasimha Rao (1994), Atal Bihari Vajpayee (2000) and Dr. Manmohan Singh (2005).
The timing and context of Modi's address is different from address to the Joint House. After Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (1976 and 1994) and South African President Nelson Mandela (1990 and 1994) who addressed the American House of Commons, America is now trying to position Modi as the third world leader. Earlier, not only Modi's speech during his first speech in 2016, but also his speeches in Madison Square when he visited America for the first time in 2014 and in Houston in 2017 with President Donald Trump as a witness are still in the news. Modi, who is going to visit the United States for the seventh time in nine years, may have an impact on Nepal as well.
The world cannot deny the fact that Narendra Modi has emerged as a powerful leader in India. On the eve of Lok Sabha elections to be held next year, this visit has recently appeared as a series of his visits from Japan, Papua New Guinea to Australia. The Indian diaspora is one of the main targets of Modi's visits, which are organized with skilled managers like Vijay Chauthaiwale arriving in advance. Modi's efforts to win the hearts of diaspora Indians, who are establishing themselves globally, with the slogan of a strong and self-reliant India, have had an impact on the elections within the country. Modi, reeling from the setbacks he received in the state elections in Himachal Pradesh last year and recently in Karnataka, has left no stone unturned to capitalize on the international influence of his personality in the country. He is also taking advantage of the world's largest multi-party democracy and the fact that the world community is forced to listen to what the population has to say.
On the other hand, India's support is essential for the US's Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) to contain China. America understands that China cannot be entangled in its neighborhood without India's help and support. America is worried about what Xi Jinping will do after being elected as the General Secretary and President of the Communist Party of China for the third term.
The US is not unaware of the fact that Xi is planning to bring Taiwan under China, trying to add a new brick to the history made by Mao by liberating China and Deng Xiaoping by bringing Hong Kong under China's control from Britain, even though they are trying to gain a higher position than them. Also, the United States does not like the fact that China is blocking the developing and underdeveloped countries of the world by cooperating in development through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The US is looking to India to face the challenges posed by China from all three places – water, land, and sky. This is the main reason behind the growing tussle with Modi.
The fifth 'Leaders' Summit' of the Quad recently held on May 20, 2023 in Hiroshima, Japan can be viewed from this perspective. The meeting held between US President Joe Biden, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, disturbed by the emphasis given to the Indo-Pacific region without mentioning China's name, China has immediately released a strong response. Although China is not mentioned in both the four-point 'Leader's Vision Statement' and the 36-point 'Joint Leader's Statement', the main objective is focused on how to shrink China's role in the Indo-Pacific region. America, which believes that India is an important partner for this work, is going to roll out the red carpet for Modi in Parliament for the second time in seven years.
Countries are free to cooperate and expand their relations. However, such cooperation should not have a negative impact on the balance of power in the world and lead the world to turmoil in one way or another. Amid the rising tensions between the US and China, India's role should be to ease them and lead to world peace. America and China play an important role in this matter. As Henry Kissinger said in an interview with The Economist on his 100th birthday, only America and China can stop World War III.
(Bishnu Rijal is a central member of the CPN-UML)
