Tibet's Yarlung Zangbo River is known as the Brahmaputra in India and the Jamuna in Bangladesh.
China's announcement last week of the construction of the world's largest hydroelectric project on the easternmost part of the Tibetan Plateau, with a capacity of nearly 70,000 megawatts (MW), has sent shockwaves through the South Asian region and triggered discussions in Nepal.
However, experts say that the proposed dam on the lower Yarlung Zangbo River (the Brahmaputra in India and the Jamuna in Bangladesh) will not negatively impact Nepal. They assert that there is no cause for concern regarding physical, environmental, or economic repercussions for Nepal.
China has approved a project to generate nearly 70,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity, a capacity three times that of the world's largest hydroelectric project, the Three Gorges Dam (22,500 megawatts), according to a report published by the Chinese state news agency Xinhua on Wednesday.
This project has been a long-term ambition for China. It was formally outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and further solidified as a long-term goal extending to 2035 during the 2020 Plenum of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
According to a survey by China's Power Construction Corporation, the project, to be built near the border with India's Arunachal Pradesh, has the potential to generate over three times the annual electricity output of the Three Gorges Dam (88.2 billion kilowatt-hours).
The Three Gorges Dam cost 254.2 billion Yuan (US$34.83 billion) to build and required the relocation of nearly 1.4 million people. However, due to the sparse population in Tibet, the project is said to require only a small number of people to relocate, and the project is estimated to cost US$137 billion to complete.
Similarly, it is said that even if a dam is to be built, it will not be as large as the 'Three Gorges' and that this project is envisioned as a 'run-of-the-river' scheme, not a traditional reservoir project.
The Yarlung Zangbo River originates in the Mansarovar region of Tibet and flows eastward. It then makes a dramatic U-turn within Tibet before entering Arunachal Pradesh, India. After traversing Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, the river merges with the Ganges River in Bangladesh.
The project, situated downstream on the river, has raised security concerns in India and Bangladesh, although the governments of both countries have yet to respond formally.
Former Water Resources Secretary Dwarika Nath Dhungel says that Nepal has no reason to be concerned about the project.
"I don't think we should be overly concerned about the large dam currently under construction," he told Nepalkhabar, "It appears to have no significant impact on Nepal."
He argues that China, which has already built a huge project like the 'Three Gorges', has undoubtedly taken into account the environmental implications of this new undertaking.
"I am confident that China, with its successful completion of the Three Gorges Dam, possesses the capability to undertake this project while diligently considering its environmental impact," stated Dhungel.
Hydrology expert Dr. Jagat Kumar Bhusal maintains that even if China constructs a large-scale dam in the Tibetan region for this project, it will not significantly impact Nepal's environmental system.
"The proposed dam is far from Nepal," he said, "Hydrologically, it is beyond the Himalayas. So, hydrologically, I don't think it will affect Nepal."
Dr. Bhusal acknowledges that constructing a large dam will likely increase atmospheric evaporation and slightly augment water storage. However, these impacts are unlikely to affect Nepal, he asserted.
Bhusal says, "If the reservoir becomes larger, more water will evaporate. This will store water in the atmosphere of the Tibetan region. That is why even if there is heavy rain and a major flood, it will fall in the northwest of Nepal. Therefore, even if there is a flood, it will not affect Nepal much."
Former minister and water resources expert Deepak Gyawali also says that since the project is located further east than the Indian state of Assam, it will not have any impact on Nepal.
"The project's location is east of Assam," he states, "and our rivers have no connection to the Brahmaputra. A project situated so far east in Bangladesh is unlikely to have any significant impact on us."
Some in Nepal have expressed concerns that the construction of such a large project could hinder Nepal's plans to sell electricity to China. However, Gyawali categorically refutes this claim.
He argues that given China's vast market, even if Nepal were to generate and export its entire electricity production capacity, it would still be a negligible amount for the Chinese market.
Gyawali emphasizes that Nepal's potential electricity exports to China are insignificant compared to China's massive power generation capacity. He highlights that Nepal's current production is mere 3,000 megawatts, while its theoretical maximum capacity is estimated to be between 40,000 and 42,000 megawatts. Even if Nepal achieves this ambitious target, it would still only account for a small fraction of China's 2 million megawatt power generation capacity, making it negligible in the grand scheme of things.
Security measures have been taken: Chinese Foreign Ministry
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning made an official statement on the project on Friday, saying that the project has been studied in depth for decades and safety measures have been taken.
"For decades, in-depth studies have been conducted on hydropower development in this region, and measures have been implemented to guarantee the project's safety and safeguard the ecosystem," Mao stated at the ministry's regular press conference. "The project will have no impact on the lower reaches."
China's approval of the world’s largest dam over the Yarlung Zangbo River in the ecologically sensitive Himalaya region close to Indian LAC has raised a lot of concerns in the neighborhood, especially the enormity of it. PTI, India's leading news agency, inquired spokesperson Mao whether China had considered the concerns expressed by riparian states like India and Bangladesh regarding the potential impacts of this project.
In response, Mao said, "China has always been responsible for the development of cross-border rivers. China’s hydropower development in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River aims to speed up developing clean energy, and respond to climate change and extreme hydrological disasters. The hydropower development there has been studied in an in-depth way for decades, and safeguard measures have been taken for the security of the project and ecological environment protection. The project has no negative impact on the lower reaches. China will continue to maintain communication with countries at the lower reaches through existing channels, and step up cooperation on disaster prevention and relief for the benefit of the people by the river."
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