The Nepali Congress (NC)-led ruling coalition could not finalize the leadership of the new government that was to be formed despite seven days granted by President Bidya Devi Bhandari.
However, on Sunday, the last day (December 10) of the President's deadline, it did not take much time for a new alliance led by the CPN (UML) to pick the prime minister.
A newfound alliance led by the UML and seven parties and three independently-elected MPs quickly elected Maoist Center Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' as the Prime Minister within three hours. Prachanda was appointed the new Prime Minister on the same day.
The new alliance led by the UML comprised the Maoist Center, the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP), the Janamat Party, the Nagarik Unmukti Party along with three independent MPs.
Though Prachanda became the Prime Minister with the support of 169 MPs in the 275-member House of Representatives (HoR) backed by seven smaller parties, it will be interesting to find out how long his tenure will last. Prachanda could hold onto the top Executive Post for nine months each during his past two stints.
According to leaders familiar with Sunday's Balkot meeting, an agreement has been reached between Prachanda and UML Chair KP Sharma Oli on helming the government by taking turns, with the first 2.5 Prachanda leading and the next Oli.
But since Oli and agreement are two contrasting things, doubt emerge if Prachanda would complete his half the term as PM.
To ensure a stable government in the country, the Constitution of Nepal has incorporated a provision wherein a no-confidence motion cannot be filed until two years after a government secures a vote of confidence in the HoR.
Article 100 (4) of the constitution states, "One-fourth of the total number of the then HoR may table a motion of no confidence in writing that the House has no confidence in the Prime Minister. Provided that a motion of no confidence shall not be tabled until the first two years after the appointment of the Prime Minister and until another one year after the date of failure of the motion of no confidence once tabled."
Since this article clearly provides that no-confidence motion against the Prime Minister can be brought for two years, it may seem that Prachanda is completely safe for two years as the Prime Minister.
However, the provision of other clauses under Article 100 raises questions about Prachanda's continuity as Prime Minister.
For instance, according to Article 100 (4) of the Constitution, even when no one brings a motion of no confidence to remove the PM within first two years, if it appears that if the PM seems to have lost the confidence of the House, then the process of ousting the Prime Minister can begin.
Article 100 (2) states, "In case the political party, which the Prime Minister represents, is divided or a political party in coalition government withdraws its support, the Prime Minister shall table a motion in the House of Representatives for a vote of confidence within thirty days."
After that, Article 100 (3) mentions that in case a motion tabled pursuant to clauses (1) and (2) is not adopted by a majority of the total number of the then HoR members, the Prime Minister shall be relieved of his or her office.
Looking at the math behind Prachanda's appointment as the Prime Minister, one cannot rule out that such situation could not come up.
On Sunday (December 10), the UML (78 seats), RSP (20 seats), RPP (14 seats), JSP (12 seats), Janamat Party (6 seats), Nagarik Unmukti Party (4 seats) and three independents i.e. 169 MPs were among those who supported Prachanda as Prime Minister.
Prachanda does not have to take a vote of confidence until and unless he commands the support of 138 MPs in HoR even if one or a few party withdraws its support, according to Article 100 (2).
However, if a party withdraws its support in manner shaking the 138 MPs support line, the Prime Minister is bound to take a vote of confidence.
Let's talk about the two parties – RSP and RPP -- extending support to Prachanda-led government.
The RSP has 20 MPs in the HoR and the RPP 14. The total sum of MPs of these two parties is 34.
If these two parties pull out of the government, the number of MPs supporting Prachanda will fall to 136, two short of majority. Therefore, if these two parties RSP and RPP withdraw their support, then Prachanda will be forced to table a motion for a vote of confidence in the House.
Similarly, if any party, which has extended its support now, withdraws at a later time, and another party formally lends supports to maintain the majority, then Prachanda's position as Prime Minister will not falter.
Suppose, the UML with 78 seats withdraws its support to Prachanda, but at the same time, the Nepali Congress, which has 89 seats, lends its support, then Prachanda will be safe. However, in this case, securing a vote of confidence may be required.
Article 100 (2) is like a sword hanging over Prachanda, which could lead to the collapse of his position as Prime Minister.
It is not be noted that all the parties supporting Prachanda as Prime Minister are not joining the government.
Apart from the Maoist Center, six parties and three independent MPs supported Prachanda as PM. Of them, the RPP, which has 14 seats in the HoR, clearly stated that it would not join the government despite expressing its support. The JSP with 12 HoR seats, and three independent MPs are also not in the government.
The Nagarik Unmukti Party, which has 4 HoR seats, has said it would join government only after the release of its cadres and leaders, including Resham Chaudhary, languishing in prison in Tikapur incident case.
The combined seats of such parties that are undecided or decided not to join, or put forward conditions to join the government is 33. If all these parties at any time withdraw their support, then Prachanda will fall into minority despite commanding the support of UML and RSP.
In such scenario as well, Prachanda will have support of only 136 MPs. He will be morally obliged to submit a motion for a vote of confidence himself in such case. If so happens, he will either have to manage a new party or necessary MPs to maintain majority, or else he will have no choice but to step down from power.
Even if the parties that supported Prachanda get divided resulting in loss of majority, the Prime Minister may have to step down before the two years constitutional provision wherein a no-confidence motion cannot be filed.
There is no immediate threat to Prachanda government as the UML with 78 HoR seats and the RSP with 20 seats are in the government.
However, the RPP, which unlike others is only supporting the government. Unlike other parties, the RPP party carries the agenda of monarchy and Hindu nation. In event of some discord, there is a possibility of the RPP withdrawing support.
There are plenty of examples in Nepal where small parties have been divided and the government collapsed following a 'Hung Parliament' where no one commands a majority.
If such history repeats in the case of RSP, RPP, JSP and Janamat Party, among others, it will add challenge to the continuity of Prachanda-led government.
So far, we have not talked about the UML, the largest party in the new ruling coalition, that decisively made Prachanda the prime minister. However, UML Chair Oli played a decisive role to support Prachanda as Prime Minister.
Oli himself played a role in garnering the support of RSP Chair Rabi Lamichhane, who has 20 seats, and RPP Chair Rajendra Lingden, who has 14 HoR. Both Lingden and Lamichhane had reached Balkot prior to news breaking that the NC-led coalition no more existed and Prachanda leaving Baluwatar on Sunday.
However, Prachanda's himself garnered the support of the JSP, the Nagarik Unmukti, the Janamat Party and 3 independents.
Therefore, if Oli wants to topple Prachanda, the RSP and RPP could withdraw their support first. In this situation, Prachanda himself will have to take a vote of confidence. And given this, Prachanda will no longer be in power before his 2.5 years tenure completes.
The main basis for Prachanda becoming the Prime Minister was the UML with 78 seats. Among other seats required for majority, RSP and RPP are amonog other influential partners supporting Prachanda at the behest of Oli.
The core summary of Balkot’s Sunday meeting is not just that Prachanda took the top executive job, it is also that Oli would take over the top post after 2.5 years. The agreement struck was not just between Prachanda and Oli, the newfound alliance partners comprising over dozen parties stand as witnesses.
Therefore, not honoring this agreement will be tough for anyone.
Other thing to note is Oli would not want to topple Prachanda unless the Moaist Center chair does something unpleasant to the UML chair. If any thing happens, Oli could mobilize RSP and RPP to topple Prachanda.
But, on the other hand, such possibility is minimal as the UML chair’s focus is fixed on the premiership. He aims to conduct next elections and garner majority for his party with him leading the government in the second half of the 5 year tenure.
Therefore, Oli would not be cautious as to annoy Prachanda and only the support of RSP and RSP will not suffice for his ultimate vision. He would stay honest with Prachanda because his vision comes to frutition with Maoist Center’s 32 MPs. Oli would not try to break the newly formed alliance prematurely.
Contrary to the collective agreement reached at Balkot, if Oli tries to dethrone Prachanda, the Maoist Center chair might remain safe because of the arithmetic in the Parliament.
Not to forget, the Congress, which is the largest party in HoR, has been sans power from the center to the province due to Oli's tactics. If Oli tries to remove Prachanda, the Congress will come to Prachanda’s rescue and avenge Oli.
After all, Prachanda is a 'player of profit' - he enters whichever house profits him. Oli has hurt Deuba, which the NC president shall not ever forget and will always be on the lookout for revenge. Will Deuba spare Oli if the UML chair himself provides such opportunity? However, there is little possibility that Oli will attempt to topple Prachanda.
Firstly, Prachanda will also not want to provoke Oli since he became the Prime Minister for the third time and his strategy will be to take much profit by pleasing Oli as much as possible.
Secondly, Prachanda does not have the nature to break promises. Oli is the most knowledgeable about the Moaist Center chair’s nature. It should be noted that Prachanda handed over power easily to Deuba in 2017 when Oli had told him not to do so and pledged allegiance.
Prachanda has an honest image in the transfer of power. Given that, if Prachanda is betrayed, the current alliance will be broken and Oli’s prospect of being the Prime Minister will be a distant dream, Oli himself will be flexible and urge Prachanda to be flexible in order to prevent other small parties from pulling out of the alliance.
Unless, if the geopolitical forces act decisively to break this alliance or if the Congress tries to break this alliance by offering the Prime Minister’s post to a party other than the UML-Maoist Center, then it is a different matter. Or else, there is a possibility that Prachanda will continue as the Prime Minister for the next two and a half years after Balkot's agreement.
