The first phase of the Bihar Legislative Assembly election begins today, November 6, with the second phase scheduled for November 11 and results to be declared on November 14. The election is being watched with intense curiosity not only across India but also in neighboring Nepal, whose politics often mirrors the social complexity and generational aspirations visible in Bihar. With around 74.3 million registered voters deciding the fate of 243 constituencies, this election represents a decisive moment for a state that has long struggled to balance tradition, governance, and aspirations for change.
Caste, class, and the crisis of governance
Bihar remains one of India’s most socially fragmented and economically deprived states. Around 88 percent of its population lives in rural areas, and the state continues to face deep structural inequality despite years of reform rhetoric. The social composition still shapes political outcomes: Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) make up about 36 percent, Other Backward Classes (OBCs) 27 percent, and Scheduled Castes (SCs) nearly 20 percent of the population. The dominance of caste as a determinant of political loyalty remains, even as young voters show signs of gradual defiance of this traditional arithmetic.
According to the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) and Bihar Election Watch, around 32 percent of candidates face criminal charges, while 40 percent are crorepatis (millionaires), in what remains one of India’s poorest states. This stark contrast between political privilege and public poverty underscores how the criminalization of politics, often described as Bihar’s “Jungle Raj,” continues to shadow democratic practice.
Tug of War: BJP-led NDA vs INDIA Bloc
Most opinion polls indicate a narrow but definite edge for the BJP-led NDA, which includes Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and smaller allies, over the opposition INDIA Bloc or Mahagathbandhan, with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led by Tejashwi Yadav as its main pillar.
Nitish Kumar, despite his history of alliance shifts, continues to rely on his image of administrative experience and the narrative of development, especially improvements in infrastructure, women’s empowerment, and social welfare. The RJD, conversely, has centered its campaign on unemployment, inflation, and the alleged failures of the BJP-JD(U) coalition to deliver prosperity for the marginalized. Tejashwi Yadav has tried to infuse youthful energy into the campaign, presenting himself as the voice of Bihar’s jobless graduates.
While this bipolar contest is familiar, the emergence of a third pole, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, has given the election an entirely new dimension.
The Jan Suraaj Phenomenon: A new narrative in Bihar politics
Among the most discussed figures in the 2025 polls is Prashant Kishor, the political strategist-turned-reformer who once engineered election victories for leaders like Narendra Modi, Nitish Kumar, and Mamata Banerjee. Today, he leads his own movement, Jan Suraaj (Good Governance), and has repositioned himself as a grassroots reformer challenging the entrenched political order.
Kishor’s campaign has been unlike any other. Through his state-wide “padyatra” (foot march), he has walked thousands of kilometers across villages and towns, speaking directly to citizens, migrant workers, teachers, farmers, and small business owners. His central promise, to restore Bihar’s pride through economic transformation, industrialization, and educational reform, resonates deeply among those long alienated by decades of caste-driven politics and policy stagnation.
He has struck a chord with the student community, migrant laborers, professionals, and intellectuals who see in him a technocratic, corruption-free alternative. Kishor’s language of governance, data, and development stands apart from the caste-religious rhetoric that typically dominates Bihar’s elections.
Still, Jan Suraaj remains a fledgling organization with limited financial resources and a thin network compared to the well-entrenched political machines of the NDA and the RJD. Bihar’s electoral culture, long defined by community affiliation and patronage, poses a formidable challenge to translating popularity into votes.
The Stakes: pride, prosperity, and political awakening
This election is not only about who governs Bihar next but about reclaiming the psychological pride of a state long stereotyped for poverty and backwardness. Kishor’s call for dignity, to reverse the humiliation of Bihar’s youth migrating in search of work, has become a rallying cry for change. His narrative of halting outmigration through industrial growth, quality education, and skill development has found wide resonance, particularly among young and urban voters.
For many, Kishor represents a new grammar of politics, one that prioritizes performance over populism and governance over identity. Regardless of whether his party wins big, he has already shifted the political discourse. By foregrounding citizen concerns and accountability, he has redefined what leadership in Bihar could look like.
Challenges and realities
Despite his momentum, Kishor faces entrenched realities. Caste alliances remain deep-rooted, and money power continues to distort competition. His limited rural machinery might blunt his urban appeal. The BJP’s disciplined campaign apparatus, aided by central resources and social-media dominance, presents a formidable challenge. The RJD and its allies, though fractious, still command loyal vote banks among Yadavs, Muslims, and Dalits, communities resistant to saffron narratives. Kishor’s greatest test, therefore, is breaking the inertia of habitual voting in a state where political loyalty is inherited more than debated.
Yet, what sets him apart is his direct digital outreach and ability to connect with educated, tech-savvy first-time voters. Bihar has around 1.07 million new voters aged 18–19, many of whom are more inclined toward performance-based politics. Even if Jan Suraaj falls short in seat count, its moral impact on Bihar’s political culture is undeniable.
Implications for Nepal
The Bihar election carries both symbolic and strategic resonance for Nepal. The two neighbors share an open border of over 700 kilometers and an intertwined social fabric that transcends geography. Border districts such as Madhubani, Sitamarhi, and Motihari are linked to Nepal’s Terai through kinship, commerce, and daily migration. Political shifts in Bihar often ripple across Nepal’s plains, influencing narratives on governance, reform, and youth mobilization.
In recent years, Nepal’s Gen Z-led protests have exposed deep frustration with corruption, elite dominance, and economic stagnation. These protests echo the same impulses that now fuel Jan Suraaj in Bihar, a demand for accountable leadership and economic dignity. Prashant Kishor’s experiment offers a living example of how a reform-minded movement, even within a traditional system, can mobilize citizens through data-driven planning, dialogue, and consistent fieldwork.
For Nepal, watching Jan Suraaj’s trajectory provides valuable lessons in grassroots democratization. Kishor’s model of walking among people, listening rather than lecturing, and crafting issue-based solutions demonstrates how trust can be rebuilt in disillusioned societies. His emphasis on education, employment, and industrialization aligns closely with the priorities of Nepal’s own restless youth.
Moreover, Bihar’s politics underscore the limits of identity-based mobilization, a pattern Nepal also struggles to transcend. If Kishor’s politics of performance gains traction, it may embolden reformist Nepali actors to challenge old power blocs that rely on ethnicity, patronage, or revolutionary legacy rather than governance results. The shift from rhetoric to results is a lesson that could reshape not just electoral strategies but also citizens’ expectations from their representatives.
Economically too, Bihar’s development trajectory matters for Nepal. Thousands of Nepalis work or trade across the border, and improvements in Bihar’s connectivity and industry would have spill-over benefits for Nepal’s border economy, particularly in cross-border logistics, consumer markets, and employment opportunities.
Finally, Bihar’s youth awakening, visible in Jan Suraaj’s rallies and social-media surge, mirrors the digital citizenship emerging in Nepal. The rise of educated, connected youth who refuse to accept inherited hierarchies indicates a generational convergence across the Ganga-Koshi corridor. If Jan Suraaj manages to secure a meaningful presence in the Assembly, it will symbolize the rise of an alternative imagination in South Asian politics, one grounded in transparency, empathy, and evidence-based policymaking.
The verdict ahead
As polling concludes on November 11 and results arrive on November 14, Bihar’s election will test whether its voters are ready to transcend the past. Will they vote along caste and community lines, or embrace a new model of developmental politics? Even if Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj does not emerge as a decisive power, his campaign has already left a mark. He has redefined political communication, mobilized young citizens, and reminded both Bihar and South Asia that leadership rooted in ethics, evidence, and empathy still matters.
(Dr Jaiswal is a Research Director at the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement (NIICE).
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