Reinvigorated social democracy often involves a democratically elected government with the popular majority of votes that gradually accumulates and exercises absolute power of the state. The tendency of majoritarianism leads ultimately to authoritarianism to enjoy absolute power and a channel of communication concentrated in a single person. Many democratically elected governments in the 1990s slid back to authoritarianism. It was when the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed into pieces, that political pundits like Fukuyama came up with the idea of the "End of history" with liberal democracy as the ultimate political system.
After the Athenian democracy, the first “long” wave of democracy started in the 1820s and lasted about a century. It brought 29 democracies to power, many following pressures to expand suffrage to larger portions of the male population. The second wave of democratization occurred from 1943 to 1962. After the decolonization process in Africa and Asia, the advent of democracies took stage of a governing system as a political ideology. The key trigger of this wave was the struggle against fascism and the fall of colonial empires in Africa and Asia. During that time more than 60 countries were exercising democracy. The third wave of democratization took place from 1974 onward until 2000.
The anticipation of Fukuyama’s ‘End of History’ and Huntington’s ‘End of Civilization’ and ‘Third Wave’ also did not prove realistic as the influence of the USA as a unipolar global faded away with multiple players visible in the international arena with considerable weight. However, popular uprisings like the Arab Spring 2011 were brutally suppressed, failing to topple authoritarian regimes in Africa and the Middle East.
The nations, exercising democracy, irrespective of the size of economy and geography, resorted to authoritarian due to factors like poor governance, economic stagnation, and corruption.
When people lose faith in their government due to poor governance, it erodes legitimacy and power over time.
When the political promises are not met, the leader’s lifestyle changes apparently, people have reasons to dislike the system and revolt against it.
In most cases, the coalition supporting the regime also disintegrates over time. When the political promises are not met, the leader’s lifestyle changes apparently, people have reasons to dislike the system and revolt against it. According to Huntington, democratic systems, however, renew themselves through elections making it possible for a new coalition to come to power with new policies and renewing new fancy promises for the future. This is what is replicated presently in Nepal.
Clustered transitions from democracy to dictatorship as a reverse wave. If we look around the world there has been a rising trend of far-rightist groups coming into power mostly the populists. Le Pen in France, Morawiecki in Poland, Orban in Hungary, Erdogan in Turkey, Duterte in the Philippines, and Bolsonaro in Brazil are said to represent the far-rightists. Democracy in South Asia has been undergoing strain tests such as in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Many observers label the Leader of India also as a populist.
Liberal Democratic Party lost the majority in a recently held election in Japan. In a presidential election held in November 2024 in the USA, the victory of Donald Trump, despite having several allegations of legal criminal and civil cases against him, was viewed as a democratic reversal wave at the doorstep. With the victory of Donald Trump as President of the USA, and securing a majority in the House of Representatives and Senate, political pundits have speculated that the political landscape of the world may visibly change.
Be it authoritarian or democratic, leaders often manipulate the concept of democracy to serve their own interests and those of their inner circle. The rise of reinvigorated social democracy could offer a solution to the problems caused by corrupt and morally lax leaders.
When the political promises are not met, the leader’s lifestyle changes apparently, people have reasons to dislike the system and revolt against it.
The emergence of a new elite class in Nepal, characterized by crony capitalism, has filled the power vacuum left by the feudal system, leading to increased influence in governance and decision-making. This has angered the working class, who feel marginalized and left behind. Lust of power has misguided and misplaced leaders from their promised ideological manifesto of creating egalitarianism.
The widespread corruption and mismanagement of public funds, often involving embezzlement and benefiting a select few, have eroded public trust in the government and sparked public outrage.
To escape the democracy trap, it needs to end chaos, and corruption as well as stop crony capitalism and pervasive impunity. Otherwise, voters would not buy the date-expired pills in the name of democracy. To save democracy from falling, it needs to devise its self-correcting mechanism making it work effectively for the people.
Disillusionment with democracy at times produced an anti-establishment response. In this case, voters would reject the incumbent party and simultaneously deny the principal alternative party or group within the political establishment. The voters would then throw their support to a political outsider untested. Nepal is undergoing such a crucial time that democracy in Nepal is on the verge of collapse and possibly being derailed and reversed to the path toward authoritarianism. It looks like the fourth wave of democracy is in the offing paving the way for a reinvigorated social democracy.
(Mr. Bartaula is a former Diplomatic Officer of the Government of Nepal.)
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