The Gen Z wave of protests in Nepal in September, sparked by social media bans, escalated into a nationwide social movement. This wave of unrest toppled the incumbent government in a single day, paving the way for a transitional administration and ushering in a new round of power reconfiguration and societal reforms. The multifaceted interconnections of interests in bilateral relations have positioned China as a direct stakeholder in the latest developments of Nepal's domestic situation. Observers in China are deeply pained by the governance failures exposed in Nepal's society, admire the courage displayed by its youth, yet remain apprehensive that further escalation of the situation could jeopardize China's core interests.
Empathy
The core driving force behind Nepal's Gen Z movement lies in young people's profound discontent with social injustices. Data shows that Nepal's youth unemployment rate exceeded 20% in 2024, with many graduates confronting the dilemmas of "credential devaluation" and "brain drain." From a broader perspective, this movement reflects the common challenges faced by youth in developing countries amid globalization, especially employment pressures and diminishing social mobility. These issues resonate with similar concerns in China's own youth development agenda.
As a nation with a vast youth population, China has grappled with comparable challenges in recent years. The Chinese government has implemented a series of policies to expand employment opportunities and advance vocational education reforms, aiming to alleviate youth unemployment pressures. China recognizes that a healthy societal development cannot thrive without the vitality of its younger generation. If youth perceive no pathway for upward mobility, the cohesion and stability of society will be undermined. The frustrations and discontent of Nepali youth stem from structural barriers, including the inequitable distribution of economic and political resources, which exacerbate their sense of disillusionment.
One common stereotype among Chinese people about Nepal is its notorious corruption problem, which naturally fosters deep sympathy for the Nepali people's demands to eradicate it. The Gen Z movement directly catalyzed the formation of the interim government, which bears the critical responsibility of conducting anti-graft investigations and rooting out corruption in society and politics—a prospect that is invigorating. China's own anti-corruption practices also emphasize the importance of public participation, such as through petition channels and media exposure mechanisms that encourage oversight and reporting by citizens. This empathy is not mere performative rhetoric but is rooted in a shared understanding of the corruption challenges confronting developing countries.
Moreover, a more incorruptible and transparent Nepali society would mean an optimized environment for investment and tourism, ultimately benefiting China's interests. However, drawing from China's experience, a long-term perspective suggests that relying solely on judicial probes and personnel changes may face sustainability challenges. While high-pressure anti-corruption efforts can deter misconduct in the short term, without institutional underpinnings, corruption is likely to rebound quickly. Since 2012, China has advanced the institutionalization of its anti-corruption mechanisms, with ongoing efforts to refine and strengthen them. If Nepal can leverage this wave of change to establish effective, context-appropriate mechanisms for preventing and punishing corruption, China would undoubtedly welcome it.
Concerns
The establishment of the interim government signals a potential turning point in Nepal's political development, but the current volatility has also sparked legitimate apprehensions from the Chinese side. As a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative, Nepal hosts numerous Chinese investment projects and prospective initiatives, primarily focused on infrastructure construction. These share a common vulnerability: heavy reliance on political and policy continuity. China's primary concern revolves around the risk of renewed political instability. Recent media reports, including social media, indicate that divisions among various factions continue to surface. If the various parties cannot reach a compromise to advance elections and reforms within the stipulated timeframe, Nepal's political divisions and fragmentation may deepen further, potentially leading to cycles of instability. Such a scenario would undoubtedly be catastrophic for deepening bilateral cooperation and is something both sides must strive to avert.
It is undeniable that bilateral relations between China and Nepal have evolved to the point where the two nations' interests are highly intertwined. China has legitimate grounds to insist that its core interests be respected, including adherence to the one-China principle and the commitment to prohibiting the use of Nepali territory for any anti-China activities—these demands are especially pertinent during periods of political flux. However, reports from Nepali media indicate that recent developments regarding China's interests and concerns in Nepal are far from reassuring, with some already warranting heightened vigilance. These emerging trends have sparked enormous controversy even within Nepal, underscoring a broad consensus across Nepali society on the sensitivity of such issues and an unwillingness to cross China's red lines. Although these developments have not yet become dominant, in the context of geopolitical dynamics resonating with domestic turbulence, any anti-China inclinations could escalate to the level of bilateral relations.
Furthermore, in the areas of non-traditional security that both sides are deeply concerned about—including issues such as climate change, biodiversity, and cross-border illicit activities—these represent shared threats and challenges confronting the two countries, necessitating coordinated responses. The two sides have previously reached a high degree of consensus on these issues and have initiated cooperative processes. Whether Nepal's political transition period and the foreseeable subsequent phases of reform can continue to honor past commitments and deepen collaboration with China remains to be observed. Various indicators suggest that developments further complicating the outlook for these issues are emerging continuously, compelling the Chinese side to monitor the situation more closely and approach it with greater prudence.
Stance
These concerns and apprehensions stem from a rational assessment of facts and their trajectories, aimed at safeguarding mutually beneficial cooperation rather than interfering in internal affairs. China has consistently advocated respect for other countries' sovereignty and has no intention of assuming any role beyond its established positions in Nepal's transformations. On this basis, China hopes to strengthen communication with Nepal in sensitive domains and is willing to maintain dialogue and engagement with various Nepali factions, thereby minimizing miscalculations and misunderstandings, and ensuring that Nepal's changes do not inadvertently threaten its neighbors' interests. This communication mechanism is not a temporary expedient but arises from the long tradition of amicable neighborly relations between China and Nepal, and it will contribute to elevating future bilateral ties.
Past experiences have repeatedly demonstrated that eschewing external interference is essential for a nation to independently and autonomously chart its development path suited to its circumstances—a lesson the Nepali people understand all too well. In the current complex geopolitical landscape, a constructive external environment is particularly crucial for Nepal to navigate its political transition smoothly. Therefore, China is also unwilling to see its neighbor's vulnerabilities arising from domestic turmoil exploited and manipulated by external forces, which would undermine Nepal's independence and, in turn, harm China's interests.
China itself endured prolonged periods of political upheaval, external interference, and arduous revolutions and reforms in modern history, and this has shaped Chinese people's deep yearning for independence and good governance—a sentiment that mirrors in their friendly feelings and well-wishes toward the Nepali people. The Chinese people sincerely hope that Nepal will seize this opportunity to lay the foundation for long-term stability. Through orderly reforms, Nepal has the potential to achieve modernized governance and promote inclusive economic growth, thereby injecting new vitality into regional cooperation. At the same time, the Chinese people believe that any social transformation must prioritize the maintenance of social order and public welfare, avoiding descent into disorderly cycles. Only in a stable environment can the positive aspirations of this youth movement be converted into sustainable developmental momentum. This is not only an intrinsic need for Nepal but also aligns with China's strategic expectations for stability and prosperity in Nepal.
(Dr. Gao Liang is the Vice Director of the Nepal Study Center, Institute of South Asian Studies, Sichuan University, China.)
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