As the March 5 election approaches, Jhapa-5 has turned into a high-stakes "battleground" where traditional politics faces a massive surge from the "Gen-Z" wave.
To counter the growing popularity of Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) senior leader Balen Shah, CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli is reportedly engaged in intensive "match-fixing" with rival parties, including Nepali Congress and RPP.
Oli is strategically reaching out to influential figures like NC’s Krishna Prasad Sitaula and Damak Mayor Ramkumar Thapa, offering future political appointments in exchange for immediate electoral support.
Speculation suggests that several prominent Jhapa figures are backing Oli, including Nepali Congress former General Secretary Krishna Prasad Sitaula, RPP Koshi Province Chairman and Damak Mayor Ram Kumar Thapa, Ward 7 Chair Bhim Prasad Poudel, and medical entrepreneur Durga Prasai.
Oli appears to be securing political support by offering high-level appointments to key figures. According to party insiders, he has promised Krishna Prasad Sitaula—currently a National Assembly member—the presidency of the upper house once the incumbent Chairman, Narayan Dahal, completes his term in 2084 BS.
Sitaula, who has been silent about the March 5 election after Gagan Thapa became the president through a special general convention, has appeared positive about supporting Oli internally.
Similarly, Damak Mayor Thapa, who was elected by RPP, also seems to be in favor of supporting Oli to defeat Balen. After Damak Mayor Thapa, UML is coaxing Damak 7 Ward Chair Bhim Prasad Paudel for support. It is understood that Oli is seeking Paudel's support by promising to make him the mayor of Damak in the 2084 local elections.
Durga Prasai, on the other hand, has already indicated that she will support Oli. According to RPP leaders, Prasai has about 1,200 votes in Jhapa 5. That vote is certain to go to Oli.
There are 163,379 voters in this area, and it is estimated that more than 100,000 votes will be cast.
Despite the official candidates in the field, internal shifts suggest that many traditional party workers may divert their votes to Oli to stop Balen. However, Balen’s camp remains confident, banking on a "public awakening" that they believe will bypass party instructions.
The electoral arithmetic currently shows a tight race. While Balen initially held a massive lead in public sentiment, Oli’s aggressive door-to-door campaigning and "Hinduism card" have helped him recover some ground.
According to an influential RPP leader familiar with the political scenario in Jhapa 5, to secure a win, Oli needs to pull Balen’s current 50% hold down to 40% while increasing his own share by at least 15%.
"I see 50 percent of the votes in favor of Balen. Oli has definitely made some improvements, of late. He has gone from 20 percent to around 30-35. When I add up the votes of everyone else, I see the same 15-20 percent," says the RPP leader. "Balen’s vote share should be reduced to 40 percent and his 15 percent should be increased to turn the table for Oli. If that is possible, he will win, otherwise, he will lose the elections."
A UML leader echoed the RPP's assessment, noting that Balen currently leads Oli by 15,000 to 20,000 votes. In this constituency of 163,000 registered voters, approximately 100,000 are expected to cast their ballots. To close this gap and come close to victory, as RPP leader said, Oli will have to reduce Balen’s vote from 50 percent to 40 and increase his votes by 15 percent.
Since Balen and Oli are both candidates for Prime Minister, Jhapa 5 has become a special 'battleground' for this election. The final decision will be taken by the 100,000 voters on March 5.
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