Former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba exited Singha Durbar rather in a humiliating style. He was clueless two hours even before he was going to be stripped of power. He was dead sure that no one was going to remove him as the prime minister so early, otherwise, he would not have told Dahal, “Come to me again if the things do not click out there at Balkot,” when the latter on December 25 bargained, “I will go to Balkot if you do not make me the prime minister.”
Now, the power equation has changed. A new government has been formed by a ruling seven-party alliance, creating a new political discourse. Those, who believe in a conspiracy theory, have said that there is China behind the new power-equation.
A simple fact is that had Deuba ceded the prime ministerial post to Prachanda, he would have become the prime minister through the old alliance. There were no internal preparations or plans nor had he intended to ally with KP Sharma Oli. Given the past feud, commitments made during the elections, and the words given to the southern neighbor, Prachanda opted for the new alliance, not on his own but because of Deuba himself. The ripples are created first in New Delhi when a government is formed in Nepal. Delhi along with some sections of intelligentsia is construing China as an architect behind the new alliance between the two rival communist parties.
To delve into the fact, we should first find out what caused the NC to cling on to both the posts of President and prime minister.
It is loud and clear that Prachanda and Madhav Nepal played an instrumental role in making Deuba the prime minister, through a mandamus by misusing the Supreme Court. Dahal was hopeful that he would take the helm of the government after Deuba took the charge for 18 months. How can we say that Deuba, being the five-time prime minister, could not even predict that Dahal would part ways if he was denied the prime minister?
In 2072 BS, following the promulgation of the constitution, the political parties had reached an agreement, according to which, Oli would become the Prime Minister and Sushil Koirala the President.When the time came for nomination filing, Koirala filed his candidacy for the post of Prime Minister, going against the agreement. Given the alliance between the UML and the Maoist Center, Koirala could not command the majority to become the prime minister. However, the intelligentsia including NC leaders had interpreted it as something that this idea did not come out of Koirala’s mind, rather there was someone playing a role behind the curtain. As a result, the NC lost even the post of President.
Deuba has repeated the same kind of political scenario this time, too. There are players behind the curtain even though two characters are visible on the stage. Arzu Rana, who played a role behind the curtain, has failed in her bid to achieve her intended mission. Deuba, who visited Delhi in the run-up to the elections for Southern neighbor’s blessings, has been disgracefully sidelined. He is now tight-lipped due to internal pressures rather than external ones.
Second, would Prachanda head to Balkot if he were offered the prime minister by Deuba?
Those who take the alliance between UML and Maoist Center as a coordinated event, have to analyze the psychology of Dahal. He was upset and impatient for being out of power in the previous parliament for five years which led to the dissolution of the then Nepal Communist Party. He often expressed grievances, "I helped many leaders to become prime ministers but no one is helping me out". This time he had a strong desire to become the prime minister. If Deuba had agreed to cede the post to Dahal, he would have become the prime minister through the old coalition.
Even until December 16, he was bargaining for the post of prime minister with Deuba. But Deuba did not budge an inch from his stance, forcing Dahal to go to Balkot to form a new alliance with the UML. That’s how the alliance between the two communist parties came into existence. The speculation about China's role behind the new alliance would be justified if Dahal had gone to Balkot despite Deuba offering him the prime minister. On the other hand, the UML was looking for an opportunity how the alliance could be split. No one wants its opponent to be strong, form government under its leadership, and be sidelined, eventually. However, this time the ruling five-party alliance was not broken by the UML. Oli scored a penalty at the right time when it broke up.
It is not necessary to look at such a simple fact through the lens of a conspiracy theory. Making policies based on such groundless assumptions does not benefit anyone. No matter how many policies have been made regarding Nepal, the main reason behind their failure is that they were built based on such assumptions and speculations. Being a communist party, there is a custom in Nepal to automatically place the tag of being close to China and leave the rest of the field for India. After the communist parties became stronger in Nepal, the tendency to connect their natural presence in the state power with China and portray it as a failure of India's policy has influenced the Indian policymakers in some way or the other.
Given the outcome of the general elections held recently, one thing is clear the communist parties alone would not form a government, nor would a president be elected. Therefore, this is not a communist alliance but just another alliance formed for power sharing.
The current coalition is an 'accidental coalition'. The old alliance crashed and a new alliance was formed within two hours to meet the President's deadline. Hence, there is no point (in) wasting time by racking brains and attributing it to the battle of power nations, on the basis of ideology.
(Bishnu Rijal is a Central Committee Member of the CPN–UML)
