Former Indian Ambassador to Nepal Ranjit Rae has said that Nepali Congress and CPN (UML) will ally to form a new government if the current alliance, which is being tried out, fails.
In an article published on Deccan Herald on March 5, the Indian diplomat has stated that there is a possibility of a coalition government between two big parties -- NC and UML -- provided the current coalition between the NC and the Maoist Center fails.
"Of the three combinations for government formation, UML-Maoist Center, NC-Maoist Center and UML-NC, the first has failed (the Chinese have sought for a long time to bring the major communist forces of Nepal together) and the second is now being tried out. Should the latter also fail, there still remains the possibility of the two big parties, NC and UML, coming together as they did in the past after the elections to the second Constituent Assembly in 2013," writes Rae.
The alliance led by the NC that existed prior to the general elections did not work out after President Sher Bahadur Deuba backed off from the 'gentleman agreement' to allow Prachanda to lead the government in the first half of the five-year term. The UML-Maoist Center alliance was formed on December 25 at the eleventh hour after wily UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli offered Prachanda the premiership.
However, the UML-Maoist Center alliance turned out to be wobbly after the NC, that lost almost all the constitutional posts from the center to the province, gave a vote of confidence to Prachanda on January 10.
Rae writes, "Prachanda was fearful that an activist president loyal to UML leader Oli -- similar to outgoing President Bidya Devi Bhandari, who flagrantly violated the Constitution on several occasions in favor of then PM Oli and was castigated by the Supreme Court -- would reduce Prachanda to a lame duck PM with the real power being vested in Oli."
Given the current political circumstances, NC candidate Ram Chandra Poudel would be elected President and Prachanda will secure the vote of confidence with the support of the NC.
Following a fresh eight-arty alliance formed on February 24, UML and RPP withdrew support to the Prachanda-led government, which is now seeking fresh vote of confidence following the election of the President on March 9.
Meanwhile, former Indian diplomat Rae, in his article, has shed light on Nepal’s present challenges of having to “deal with growing US interest represented in the MCC compact as well as the deepening Chinese involvement not merely in the Belt and Road Projects, but in domestic affairs."
Rae has further said that India must remain engaged with all sections of opinion in Nepal, particularly the new political forces and the youth, cautioning India, “Any stepping back or lowering our profile would create a vacuum that will be filled by others and this may not be in our longer-term strategic interest.”
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